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[Miles]

Okay I got in on these guys at 0.93 and made a crapload selling the swings. All free ride for me now but I am holding quite a few shares long for these reasons:

• From watching their chart closely they seem to pop on banks and overall market rallies. They are a broker after all. If we see banks dip here soon you can likely squeak in on ETFC cheap again.
• In the tech world (websites) userbase is everything. Think facebook/myspace. These guys have one of the largest userbases with a pretty decent product (I use them). I'm amazed they were not bought out yet.
• They have decent financials with a strong and consistent revenue stream in 'good times'.
• Expect an easy 3 bagger within 12 months.
• Pray that they get bought out by Ameritrade or another brokerage.

See the chart. Watch for a minimum 30-50 cent pullback before averaging in. $1.50 would be ideal. Having said that the trend is definitely up here, so if we take off you might want to make a small position anyways if you are light on tech plays like me. I wouldn't be too scared about holding them long but as always don't get yourself married to these guys.

I should have posted this earlier when I saw it dipping today (sorry).

[Miles]

Interesting activity: E-Trade Director buys 100K in shares on June 19th for $1.21 to $1.23! Now combine this with Citadels purchase of 182 million shares on June 18th, Coatue Capitals purchase of 64.1 million shares in June, the recent S&P's E-Trade Watch Positive announcement coupled with the August 19th Share Holders Meeting spells something bigs brewing.

In addition:

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of E-Trade Financial Corp. were down 3% in afternoon trading Thursday after hedge fund firm Citadel Investment Group in a regulatory filing said it has entered into a trading plan allowing it to sell as many as 120 million shares between the end of August and late October. Citadel said it sold nearly 14 million shares of E-Trade earlier this week. Citadel, which is run by Ken Griffin, invested heavily in online broker E-Trade in late 2007. Average cost of shares purchased during this time frame was $3.25

So, ask this. Do the insiders think the stock is set to rise above $3.25 in the near future? My guess is yes based on all of this data and since Citadel will most definitely want to make some coin on their investment.



...and more recently:

2009-08-14 2009-06-30 13F-HR Goldman Sachs Group Inc Institution 24,527,625 Added More 23,856,601 3555.25 % $33,112,294 $33,112,294

2009-08-14 2009-06-30 13F-HR Price T Rowe Associates Inc Institution 111,303,351 Added More 110,344,700 11510.41 % $150,259,524 $150,259,524

2009-08-14 2009-06-30 13F-HR Citadel L P Institution 100,191,333 Added More 90,911,191 979.63 % $135,258,300 $135,258,300

Owners Summary
Owners: 454 Owners Buying: 226 Buying Pct.: 49.77 % Owners Netrual: 56 Neutral Pct.: 12.33 % Owners Selling: 161 Selling Pct.: 35.46 %
Score: 3.09 Brand New: 80 Increase Existing: 146 No Change: 56 Sold Some: 91 Dumped All: 70 No Comparison: 11

All data from

http://www.mffais.com

[Miles]

Just a quick update...ETFC remains pretty much unmoved by this news:

Via: Reuters

NEW YORK, Aug 25 (Reuters) - E*Trade Financial Corp (ETFC.O), a discount brokerage under pressure from U.S. regulators to shore up its capital, said on Tuesday it issued about $1.76 billion of convertible debentures as part of a debt swap.

In June, the brokerage, which has a sound trading business but suffered significant credit losses in mortgage lending, offered to swap newly issued zero-coupon convertible debt for notes due in 2011 and 2017.

Chicago-based hedge fund Citadel Investment Group LLC, E*Trade's biggest debt and equity holder, participated in the swap with at least $1.2 billion in debt.

On closing of the exchange offer, E*Trade issued $1.74 billion of zero coupon class A convertible debentures and $2.3 million of zero coupon class B convertible debentures.

The new notes will replace $430 million of debt maturing in 2011 and $1.31 billion of obligations due in 2017.

The class A debentures and class B debentures will be convertible into common stock at initial conversion prices of $1.0340 and $1.5510 per share, respectively.

E*Trade shares dipped 1 cent or 0.73 percent to $1.36 in morning trading on the Nasdaq. (Reporting by Juan Lagorio, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)

[Miles]

Well we might finally get some action on this guy today...

Via: S&P Upgrades E*Trade Financial - WSJ.com

S&P Upgrades E*Trade Financial

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services upgraded E*Trade Financial Corp. and its banking operations, two weeks after being put on watch for a boost following the company's $1.74 billion debt exchange.

The ratings agency had downgraded E*Trade twice in the past three months amid the company's debt woes and the swap, which had been viewed by S&P as a distressed exchange offering.

E*Trade was raised Wednesday to CCC from CC; the new rating is one notch higher than where the online broker was rated by S&P before E*Trade announced plans for a stock offering and debt exchange. E*Trade Bank was also raised one step to B-minus, moving its rating out of highly speculative territory. The business received a four-notch downgrade in May amid concerns about E*Trade's debt levels and the bank's loan book.

The debt swap was key for the company as E*Trade seeks to bolster its capital position after heavy losses within its bank's mortgage portfolio. Last month, E*Trade reported its second-quarter loss widened on problems at its bank unit, but its loan portfolio showed signs of improving delinquency trends.

S&P said Wednesday that while the debt exchange "modestly improves" E*Trade's capital structuring by extending debt-maturity dates and cutting interest costs, leverage levels remain "relatively large" and the bank still has "serious asset-quality difficulties."

The current ratings outlook is stable. S&P noted that if E*Trade "can work through and downsize the bank's exposure to first-lien residential mortgage and home equity loans and continue to grow its retail brokerage business, we could raise the ratings. Alternatively, if the bank quickly burns through its new equity because net losses do not abate, we could lower the ratings."

Shares were recently up 4.4% at $1.41. The stock is down 52% the past year and was at $25 in mid-2007.

[Saintjames]

ETFC has just popped on the upgrade premarket - watch this one today.

[Miles]

Yeah! Some positive action premarket on this stock so I thought I would move this thread to the public forum and change it from a Watch to a BUY.

From what I can tell it's not *just* the upgrade that is moving this, the Nasdaq is looking pretty good before the bell:

Tech space set to start the day on relative strength following positive DELL earnings and INTC guidance: AMD +3.8%, INTC +3.0%, NVDA +2.6%, MU +1.4%, CSCO +1.8%, HPQ +1.7%, NSM +1.3%, TXN +1.1%

[Miles]

..And the latest:

Citadel Discontinues E*Trade Stock Sale Plan (ETFC)

Via: Citadel Discontinues E*Trade Stock Sale Plan (ETFC) - FOXBusiness.com

Aug 31, 2009 (SmarTrend(R) News Watch via COMTEX) - 8/31/2009 - Citadel Investment Group LLC said that it no longer plans to sell 120 million shares of E*Trade Financial (NASDAQ:ETFC). The Chicago-based hedge fund, which is E*Trade's largest bond and equity holder, would have commenced its stock sale Monday, however, Citadel's Chief Executive who now sits on E*Trade's board said no shares were sold. Citadel said that the sale of 120 million shares represents "slightly over 10 percent" of E*Trade's float. Citadel offered this statement, "Citadel believes that the termination of the plan at this time is in the best interests of E*Trade and all of its stakeholders."

[andre3k1]

Originally Posted by Miles .... Citadel offered this statement, "Citadel believes that the termination of the plan at this time is in the best interests of E*Trade and all of its stakeholders."

No kidding! Keeping in mind that Citadel's Chief Executive sits on ETrades board, he might know something we don't. Conspiracy theorists assemble!

[Longshot]

What do you think guys? 1.83 now and holding. Think it'll push $2 or pullback now?

Looking for a holding period of no more than 60 days.

[Miles]

Yeah I think we could see $2+ today if we can scrape past 1.95, it could be on. Hard to say the way the day is playing out. Looking to take free shares here soon on this one.