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Old 01-13-2012, 08:07 AM   Nav to Top  #1
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Default S&P ANALYSIS

(1294,60)The S&P managed to confirm a strong closing last night despite the drop toward 1281. Possible a retest of the 1297,50 level and an hourly closing above this level will support further strength suggesting a 1300 overshooting that could mean an extension even toward 1314!!

The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but now approaching the overbought area and at the moment also those of the s/t ones are in positive territory supporting higher levels. Only a return below 1281,00 will resume the decline We sold the S&P as suggested at 1288,80 but put a stop at 1298,50; already a break above 1297,50 will abort the suggested s/t top in the hourly chart.

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Old 02-07-2012, 10:34 AM   Nav to Top  #2
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Default S&P ANALYSIS 02/07/2012

The S&P is forming a double top formation but only a break below 1332,20 confirmed by an hourly closing will confirm the pattern favouring a deeper correction. Overall it confirmed a session of consolidation forming a new inside day with 1343,00 – 1319,30 the levels to follow. A daily closing above 1343 will favour an overshooting toward the s/t target. The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but also still showing overbought conditions and potential negative reversals suggesting a limited upside potential. Those of the s/t charts are mixed but in the hourly chart we have already potential positive reversals after having formed bearish divergences. We sold the 1342,00 overshooting as suggested and stay short ready to increase the position for a drp toward the 2090 hours line, now found at 1320,51!!
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Old 02-10-2012, 05:14 AM   Nav to Top  #3
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Default S&P 02.10.12

The S&P failed to confirm a break above 1351,60 but it is Stillwell bid for now. The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but also still showing overbought conditions. The indicators of the s/t charts are instead below the line suggesting further consolidation/ correction. Possible therefore an extension of the present correction toward the 200 hours line at 1331,60 where we find also a s/t support line. The decline is corrective and a buying opportunity. We close our shorts already in case of a 1334,00 undershooting. We may consider going long in case of a 1330 undershooting!
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Old 02-13-2012, 07:44 AM   Nav to Top  #4
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Default S&P 02.13.12

The S&P confirmed a weak closing on Friday, below the low of the previous session, but it failed to manage a 1330 undershooting!! Only a daily closing tonight below 1333,50 will support lower levels!! The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive but also still showing overbought conditions. The indicators of the s/t charts are mixed. Since the low at 1333,50 we have however a positive reversal suggesting a new potential s/t target at 1370,80. While below 1352,30 on an hourly closing we favour another drop at least toward 1340. We managed to close our shorts on Friday but missed to go long. We wait for another opportunity!!
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Old 02-22-2012, 04:20 AM   Nav to Top  #5
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Default S&P 02.22.12

The S&P confirmed a positive closing also yesterday, however well off the high of the daily. While above 1355 we expect therefore further upside potential toward the target at 1370,80, now again the s/t target. The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive supporting higher levels. Bearish divergences confirm the positive tone. The indicators of the s/t charts are mixed at the moment supporting some consolidation. Only an hourly closing below 1356,00 will however postpone further strength favouring a deeper correction with the 200 hours line at 1351,63 the attraction. We stay on the sideline for now still keeping the short position that we want to increase above 1370!!
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Old 08-07-2013, 05:24 AM   Nav to Top  #6
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The S&P 500 has seen its expected retreat following the rally to just shy of our 1708/13 Fibonacci resistance/trend cluster target, declining back to the rising 13-day average at 1687. Although this is holding as we write, the presence of a weekly DeMark sell signal and now a downturn in momentum raises the risk we are seeing the construction of a more important top. Below 1687/85 should add weight to this view for a move to the late July low and “neckline” support at 1675/70. Below here though remains needed to see a more important top, turning the risk lower for 1649/47 initially. Above 1698 is needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a move back to 1705, ahead of tougher resistance at 1708/11. The VIX is holding above support at 11.05/00, but above 14.14/56 is needed to see a base.

Short from 1705/10 reversed back to a long at 1688/86 target, stop/reverse below 1683. Reverse longs on strength back to 1705/10, stop above 1712. Below 1683 should see weakness extend to 1675/70. Cover shorts here, re-selling below, for 1649/47.
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Old 09-06-2013, 05:08 AM   Nav to Top  #7
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The S&P 500 continues its recovery off key support from its recent low and uptrend from November 2012 at 1629/25, for a test of 1658. This should be allowed to cap at first, ahead of the late August high and downtrend at 1665/67. Beyond here though remains needed to suggest a better base is in place for a potential resumption of the broader uptrend, targeting 1681/85 next. Support shows at 1650/48 initially, ahead of 1635, which ideally holds to keep the immediate risk higher. Below 1625 remains needed to see the uptrend break for 1620 initially, ahead of 1611 – the 61.8% retracement of the June/August rally.
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Old 09-09-2013, 04:59 AM   Nav to Top  #8
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A not that unsurprising choppy session for the S&P 500 on Friday, but with weakness yet again holding its recent low and uptrend from November 2012 at 1633/25, the spotlight remains topside and on the late August high and downtrend at 1663/67. Beyond here though remains needed to suggest a better base is in place for a potential resumption of the broader uptrend, targeting 1681/85 next, the “neckline” to the July/August top. Beyond here is needed to retarget the 1705 high. Support shows at 1653 initially, ahead of 1647/46 and then 1639/33, which ideally holds to keep the immediate risk higher. Below 1625 remains needed to see the uptrend break. The VIX above 15.00 can see the immediate risk stay higher for 18.05/10. Holding a long still, stop/reverse below 1625. Reverse longs back to a short at 1663/65, stop/reverse above 1667, as a break can target 1681/85 initially.

Below 1625 should see weakness extend to 1612/10, where I would cover shorts.
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Old 09-12-2013, 04:34 AM   Nav to Top  #9
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We turn our attention to the December contract. The S&P 500 continues to push higher, and the front month continuation series has broken above the “neckline” to the July/August top. Near-term momentum has eased a touch, warning of a setback to 1672/68, and potentially 1664. However, we look for this latter level to then ideally hold for strength back to 1686/87, ahead of 1692/94 and then the 1699 contract high, ahead of the 1705 continuation high. Below 1664 would warn of a deeper setback to 1653/52. The VIX has broken support at 14/13.90, and we Trading Look® for the decline to extend to 13.10. Rolling the long. Add on weakness to 1664/60, stop below 1658. Take profit at 1705/10.

Below 1658 should see a deeper setback to 1652/50. Retry a long here, stop below 1645.
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Old 09-15-2013, 11:15 PM   Nav to Top  #10
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Another muted session to end the week for the S&P 500, and while support at 1674/72 holds, the immediate risk can stay to the topside for strength back to 1686/87, ahead of 1692/94 and then the 1699 contract high. Although this latter level should be allowed to hold at first, the broader risk is seen staying higher for an eventual retest of the 1705 continuation high. Below 1674/72 can see a pullback to 1664/60, potentially as far as 1653/52. The VIX has broken support at 14/13.90, and we Trading Look® for the decline to extend to 13.10.
Holding a long. Add on weakness to 1664/60, stop below 1658. Take profit at 1705/10. Below 1658 should see a deeper setback to 1652/50. Retry a long here, stop below 1645.
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