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[AndyB]

Edit:

You guys should know I am trading light, since I am still very much a learner. I trade at most £10/pt on the S&P. This is possible with UK spreadbet companies, but with actual futures your minimum is $50/pt.

So, always bear in mind I am not a pro - despite the fact I talk the talk. Good luck with your trading guys.

Jamesson yes apple looks like it might plop but the decider will be if it breaks the recent low.

Maybe this can help you http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2009/05...try-level.html

[Miles]

This has happened SO MANY times recently its almost a gaurantee that if the day is down and looking bad, last 10 mins of trading will be spectacularly bullish. There are various theories for this, from PPT to market maker manipulation to hedge funds "Getting in on leaked figures".

This market is so manipulated and nobody seems to care any more. Some of these people have been outed publicly by some very well known blogs and websites.

Anyways great chart on the EOD rallies and AH trading there.

[AndyB]

The Dax just took a big poop, as did S&P / Dow futures. Down 10pts since yesterdays close. Not looking good for my long trade

[Miles]

Not looking good for my long trade

Short the plunge, then double down for the recovery?

[AndyB]

Good idea. I actually did that twice yesterday and it worked out. Shorting a quick drop with 2xshorts to longs I had open, then let the shorts go at the bottom.

Boom!

Ok its no different tojust closing the long when you short against a long, but it makes a difference psychologically. If you see 1 trade red and 1 trade green its somehow better than cutting a loss and having no trades open.

BTW Dax has a bear flag forming so looks like one more drop then perhaps a move up? I think futures might take out yesterdays low, but if they do they are oversold.

...

[jamesson]

Originally Posted by AndyB Edit: You guys should know I am trading light, since I am still very much a learner. I trade at most £10/pt on the S&P. This is possible with UK spreadbet companies, but with actual futures your minimum is $50/pt. So, always bear in mind I am not a pro - despite the fact I talk the talk. Good luck with your trading guys. Jamesson yes apple looks like it might plop but the decider will be if it breaks the recent low. Maybe this can help you Alpha Global Investors: Apple Inc. (AAPL), entry level

Thanks for the link Andy.
Note: I am less of a pro then you. I've been studying technicals for the last 4 months after I lost a bunch of money jumping blindly into the market. This forum will truly be beneficial for the both of us at honing our skills.

Majority of my analysis comes after work, when the kids are in bed, but I try to post whenever I get a chance during the day.

Cheers

[AndyB]

Yep that's what I'm aiming for, to be able to swing trade over multiple days and forget about it, as I also work. Its also a better fuss:profit ratio that way!

Wow I got slammed today, I hedged my long with a short, that's ok, locked in some loss though. Now released the short, so I'm long. If the index gets back to 900 then I'm at break-even for the day.

If not then bye bye to yesterday's gains! ..

[AndyB]

Lol, my original scenario played out, Bump and run reversal. See the first two messages of this thread.

See these things look so obvious on a proper chart. At work I have nothing to go by but the prices on Google, hence long today and boom - yesterdays gains given back to the market.

[AndyB]

Some updated charts for you guys

I've put Random's Fib retracement on the 4-hour from the decline at 930 to 880. The index may retrace to meet the 38%, 50% or even 62% lines before continuing to move down. As before a break above the recent high at 930 is bullish but seriously, its 500 dow points until it gets there so once it is there I'd be wary of going long as the index will seriously be running out of steam.

Buyers are spooked, you can see it all over the boards "Im selling out now!". Expect the same all over the world. There's a lot of bag holders up at 930, this is likely to form strong resistance if the index gets up there again.

Check how well the bump/run reversal played out. This is a great chart pattern that works very well and you can get in very early too. The index went too steep. As soon as you see a failure to make a higher high, you short, stop above the high

BRR also works in reverse for steep sell-offs.

For tomorrow, a break of that rising support line = down bigtime, so watch out guys.



Break of that 20 SMA on the daily will get very bad very quick. So far the index has not broken it though.



Call me mad but I opened a long on the June S&P future at 884. Holding overnight. Target is the ~900 region.

:-O

[AndyB]

Morning guys, I don't think this down move is done yet.

Be careful out there. Yesterdays price action looked like a "3" wave, big and impulsive. Overnight prices look like a "4" - sideways correction, which means "5" is yet to come.

I'm at a meeting all day *yawn* so won't be trading but I am thinking to set some short limit orders a little higher than here and see if they get filled.

GLTA