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[TIckerTape$$$]

Great thread guys.

For those technical analysis people out there, I have been watching a site called Rebel Traders that has been a pretty good resource. I am NOT pumping any product or website- everyone can check it out for themselves and make their own mind up. The site is totally free, and the guy running it seems to know his charts.

Stock Market Analysis, Trading, And Financial Commentary - Rebel Traders

Good hunting to all,

[AndyB]

I was looking over the charts this weekend and spotted this. The white-background charts I posted are 24 hour futures, which include overnight trading. These are trading-hours only charts. They post a different picture on the daily scale.

Look at this, this is the Nasdaq Tech 100 (NDX100). It broke its 200 day moving average and back-tested it perfectly. If I was trading this I'd say this was a perfect bullish setup.



The SPX500 is not looking so hot. Its under its 200 day SMA. Also the Dow is seriously lagging. But if they followed then this scenario is possible.



If you zoom closer into the nasdaq/S&P charts you can see they are both seriously overbought and short-term need to retrace. The Nasdaq to 1250-1350 and the S&P500 to 880.

I'm a on the market but should this week give a small pull-back then more buying I'll get kicked out by stoploss and will look for another entry.

Good luck all.

Just remember, +40% up off the lows with zero comeback on the S&P/Nasdaq. This is unprecedented.

[AndyB]

Originally Posted by TIckerTape$$$ Great thread guys. For those technical analysis people out there, I have been watching a site called Rebel Traders that has been a pretty good resource.

This article was great.

FDIC Expands Field Offices For Additional Bank Failures | Stock Market Analysis, Trading, And Financial Commentary - Rebel Traders

[VicVan]

AndyB - are you on this site 24 hours?
You are a dam miricle, born into investing

[AndyB]

VicVan, its true I'm a sad git with no friends

Lol!

I tend to do my research on the weekends when I have more time to view charts. I grabbed these earlier today and thought I'd better post them here since I've been spamming SHORT but that one nasdaq daily chart looks pretty bullish to me.

I think we'll see a pull-back on the S&P, perhaps a hefty one (880?) but after that perhaps more buying. Not sure really. Hence stops are in and I'll stick by my initial analysis.

-- I am actually dumb enough to want to catch the very top. Call it a vendetta against the bull. So if the index does move down and shorts go green I will move my stop to break even then just walk away. One day I'll get it and that bull is goin' dowwwwwwwnnn!

Also I'm long on loads of co's so if it all goes pearshaped I lose a bit on the futures but keep the gains on the shares

And no I'm no miracle, I'm just trying very hard to figure this game out. I reckon I'll crack it one day, but I'm not quite there yet ;)

I'm 8 months into trading and after a massive beginners draw-down still not at break-even. I will get there though, or I'll die trying XD

[Miles]

Wow good catch on the 200 day NDX moving avg. I tend to ignore it because I am not tech heavy but it seems to be a decent overall market indicator (for this recession) so I guess I better pay closer attention.

Keep it up Andy, love your charts.

[AndyB]

Here, I also wanted to add this. Also posted over at http://www.stockrants.com/forum/trad....html#post4027

---------------------------

Perhaps this can put things into perspective

(Note: Already posted by Miles in one of his threads)



Look at the magnitude and duration of bear markets in the Tech Crash (is this recession milder than the tech crash? Sure seems it by how fast the recovery in the markets is) and the 1930 crash.

The largest bear market rally in 1930 lasted 5 months from bottom to top. The largest in the Tech Crash lasted 6 months. Retests of the lows occured after 8-9 months. Lets take the median of the two. Its quite possible this BMR will last all the way to September 2009, before retesting lows in December 2009.

So to summarise, I'm not expecting just a pull-back, I'm expecting a full-blown lower low, but it may take a while to materialise.

By all means buy-low-sell-high, but don't be fooled by the bullishness in the markets, global financial meltdowns of this magnitude don't resolve themselves in 8 months

[AZZA]

ANDY B if this comes off given the volatility and amount of news good and bad flowing through the news at this moment in time, someone is going to make alot of money.
Seen as i didnt expect another major pullback in America for a while.

[Stealpulse]

One thing to note about past market crashes:

They did not receive the amount of government attention/intervention that the current situation is getting.

By monetizing the debt, the world governments have created artificial support. How this plays out, I'm unsure, but I am loathe to make predictions on the markets as a whole, and prefer to focus on individual stocks.

[AndyB]

Yes you're absolutely right. The government intervention in the short term will make things better, but in the long term will serve to make things worse.

-- Just my opinion of course!

BTW in the spirit of trying to work this out, I found a great free article here: Get Free Forecasts of Every Major World Market - Elliott Wave International

Some excerpts

Stock Markets

A primary-degree bear market rally in US stocks is underway and should last months.
By the time it ends, prices will not be near new highs, but optimism may rival the readings near the October 2007 peak
Though the European bear market has far more downside potential long-term, the strength of the rally and a completed five-wave pattern argue that the March 9 bottom will stand awhile.
European markets are ralling in fourth waves, counter to the primary trend, which remains down. Most Asian-Pacific indexes have completed declining waves since their 2007/2008 highs.
They should now rally for at least several months, although prices may pull back in the short term.

Interest Rates

As stocks were declining into their March low, credit spreads failed to confirm the market decline, remaining narrower than their previous December extreme.
This non-confirmation along with March's bullish reversal, strongly supports the ongoing bear-market rally view

And this which is telling



BTW The author of this monthly article is Robert Prechter who has made some stunningly accurate stock market predictions / calls in his career, most recent was to short the Dow Jones 2 weeks before the 2007 high, and cover shorts 2 weeks before the March low. 8,000 points in 18 months!