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Old 01-31-2011, 04:56 PM   Nav to Top  #1
Miles
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Eye $F - Ford - Starting a Position

Made an entry end of trading today. As always with my long-term investments 1st of 3 entries. Auto sales numbers out Feb 1st, *should* provide another buying opportunity. Recent sell-off on F was due to over-reaction on lowered guidance for Q1 2011 and lower than expected Jan sales figures out tomorrow, among other factors.

in @ $15.90. 2011 target $20.
Cramer says $32! (see below).

Video with the Ford CEO on Mad Money from Jan 13th. Warning: lots of cheerleadering here




Recent selloff reasons:

Ford Slips, Shows Year-Long Strength

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) posted a 24% fall in profit to $1.2 billion or 30 cents per share (before special items) in the fourth quarter of 2010 from $1.58 billion or 43 cents per share (before special items) in the same quarter of 2009. With this, the automaker has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19 cents per share.

The decline in profit was attributable to lower year-over-year revenues generated by the company's automotive operations as well as the financial arm. Total revenue during the quarter ebbed 7% to $32.5 billion. However, excluding revenues from Volvo, sales improved by $1.6 billion or 5% from the fourth quarter of 2009.

Outlook
For full year 2011, Ford expects industry volume (including medium and heavy trucks) of 13 million units–13.5 million units in the U.S. and 14.5 million units–15.5 million units in the 19 European markets covered by it.
In 2010, Ford continues to expect its structural costs in the Automotive division to be higher on a year-over-year basis in order to support higher production and new investments.

The company also anticipates commodity costs to be higher on the back of magnified global demand. Capital expenditures is expected in the range of $5 billion to $5.5 billion as the company continues to invest in its product and growth plans.

For 2011, Ford expects profits at Ford Credit to be lower than 2010 due to the non-recurrence of lower lease depreciation expense and that of reductions in credit loss reserve of the same magnitude as in 2010.

Our Take
We appreciate Ford's product plans and debt reduction strategy. The benefits from these strategies have already been reflected in the company's results.

However, we are concerned about the company's higher structural and commodity costs. As a result, the company retained a Zacks #3 Rank on its stock, which translated to a short-term (1–3 months) rating of Hold.

Via: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...114928724.html
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Last edited by Miles; 02-02-2011 at 05:05 AM..
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Old 02-01-2011, 04:20 PM   Nav to Top  #2
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Released today....below is a recap of each automaker's January sales:

General Motors (NYSE: GM) - up 22% from 146,825 to 178,896 vehicles
Ford (NYSE: F) - up 13% to 127,317 units
Toyota (NYSE: TM) - up 17% to 115,856 units
Honda (NYSE: HMC) - up 13% to 76,269 units
Nissan (OTC: NSANY) - up 15% to 71,847 units
Chrysler - up 23% to 70,118 units

F stayed mostly flat today, so I didn't manage to get more shares.
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Old 02-01-2011, 06:45 PM   Nav to Top  #3
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I like Ford as well. I'm in at $10.98.

I took the opportunity to purchase some just OTM calls at $16.00 for March.

Cheers.
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Old 02-01-2011, 07:57 PM   Nav to Top  #4
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Very nice psgama

Via thestreet (bold mine):

DETROIT (TheStreet) -- Following the 13% drop in Ford's stock Friday, some analysts are dialing back estimates but retaining buy recommendations.

In a report issued Sunday, Goldman Sachs analyst Patrick Archambault reduced his six-month price target to $20 from $22, with a buy rating. At midday Monday, shares were not recovering, but rather were trading down 14 cents to $16.13.

Archambault reduced his full-year 2011 and 2012 estimates to $1.77 and $2.03, respectively. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are estimating $2.17 and $2.06.

"Our new estimates reflect higher and more back-end loaded fixed costs than we previously modeled," Archambault wrote. He now allocates fixed cost inflation of $2.6 billion during the current year, up from $1.5 billion, driven by higher product development and manufacturing costs as Ford increases its headcount, as well as by higher commodity costs.

Over the long term, he noted, "we see these outlays as essential to extending Ford's product leadership."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy also reduced his price target to $22 and reduced estimates while retaining a buy rating. Murphy's 2011 and 2012 targets, respectively, are $2.18 and $2.05. But he noted: "We remain encouraged by Ford's solid progress in 2010 and expect 2011 to be even better."

"Ford's cash generation of $1billion (in the fourth quarter) was ahead of expectations, and will likely continue to be robust," Murphy wrote. "Our current estimates imply that the company will be net cash of more than $13 billion in 2011, and as a result shareholders will reap much greater benefits than generally perceived, in our view."

In reviewing what happened on Friday, it seems clear that expectations were excessive after Ford had beaten estimates seven straight times starting in the first quarter of 2009. This time, Ford earned 30 cents a share excluding items, below consensus of 48 cents. On the earnings call, top executives acknowledged that their guidance could have been better.

Ford executives had warned repeatedly of rising commodity costs, but not of enhanced product development costs or of a fourth-quarter loss in Europe.
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Old 02-11-2011, 05:45 PM   Nav to Top  #5
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Made me 3rd buy on F today after hours. Average is +/- a few pennies from $16.

Go cars go!

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Old 02-12-2011, 09:19 AM   Nav to Top  #6
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Sellers are in control, at least up to 17.
Imho.
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Old 02-23-2011, 03:59 PM   Nav to Top  #7
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Made a couple buys today reducing avg price to $15.50. Hate to call bottoms but below is a fib retracement from last years low. Next support level @ $14.50 looks good for a bounce. Below that $13.50.

With oil tagging $100 today should be more buying opportunities ahead for F. As always if you're accumulating make staggered buys
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Old 02-24-2011, 05:16 PM   Nav to Top  #8
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Today F bounced exactly off $14.50 as support has held for now. One more buy at $14.61 triggered for me. Tomorrow their is a 'demonstration' in Libya planned so we could see a dip into $13.xx territory. If we do I'll try another buy @ $13.61.

GM's Q4 only affirms this as a buy for me: http://www.istockanalyst.com/article...icleid/4918278
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Old 02-28-2011, 09:56 PM   Nav to Top  #9
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Looking good for a long term hold I would say
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Old 03-08-2011, 07:13 AM   Nav to Top  #10
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started my postition at 14.50. id like to get one more buy in for my other half, but held off on yesterdays sell off (even though it was tempting)
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