Economy Chat - General News

VicVan · 04-23-2009, 05:37 AM

Ok will start a new thread to kick this place off a little.

UK budget - no bold moves as usual. Heavier taxation is the headline grabber - 50% on people earning over £150,000. One of the highest in the G20 countries. The fall out? A gradual move from high flyers and big guns to bleed out of the county, leaving it with the CHAVs and scumbags in inner city towns, poor education and a dying economy.

Well could be worse, we could be the French. Little man Sacozy buying a huge expensive, fuel eating, pollution generating, jet. Just beacuse he wanted the best one. What the hell? what an idiot. Sorry france but you really messed up with the dwarf vs the lady.

Anyway - banks are mixed. Some good news, some dire. Believe accountants are getting very creative. They are becoming artists more than mathmaticans *I guess when were they ever NOT artisits. I think things in accounts shoul dbe carefully reviewed. This is when my CIMA exams come in handy (not.....the exams taught cramming)

Anyway

This is for general economic news from US, UK, Asia, anywhere.

So keep me and others advised on the news. Noted the rally int he US ont he speach regarding the banks. Kind of taking that with a big pinch of salt right now and staying in alot of insulated small caps

Cheers
Vic

Miles · 04-23-2009, 06:57 AM

Haha I am with you on the Sarkozy jab, see attached image.

Okay Asia. I've been out here for nearly a decade and with this latest recession I'm a bit confused whether the region hasn't already seen the worst of these types of disasters in 1997. I've seen local video of Bangkok when their was a run on banks and people were jumping out of windows, and when it comes to badass economic downturns, these guys have seen much much worse.

Singapore, China, Korea, Japan all seem to have taken the brunt of the recession, and one can find plenty of bargain stocks on these exchanges. Shorting opportunities I see would lie with the rest of the Asian dragons: Viet Nam, Thailand, and Malaysia. These countries seem to be lagging a bit behind the others, and when tourism numbers start to come out, I would expect some interesting things to happen then.

Also it's worth pointing out that housing prices here have just only started to dip, and I would guess some AMAZING investments to open up in this area middle of this year. Who wouldn't want a second home on an island paradise for 50% of current value? Places to watch will be Phuket, Koh Samui, and Hua Hin in Thailand. If the political sillyness continues in Thailand I would expect some really SICK deals to open up.

Biggest opportunity in Asia might be the opening of a stock market in Cambodia. I know some guys in Pnom Phen who claim to have an insiders view of the new exchange, and when it might open, so as soon as I know that I will certainly alert you guys.

Superfly · 04-23-2009, 08:25 AM

Well, here is what went on in the good ole' USA yesterday, as long as were on the topic of general economy. Apparently our government has their noses in Lockheed Martin's business, and feels that we need some more government oversight and goverment workers in the workforce. Id take Sarkozy any day ;)

Pentagon takes back job outsourced to Lockheed - International Business Times -

fherrada · 04-23-2009, 03:32 PM

I am french but i'll stay neutral on this one....But i will say this, Sarky as we call Sarkozy in France, has turned around France from corruption and has actually done a pretty good job since he took the job....Too bad some mistakes are always highlited and not the good things....

Miles · 04-23-2009, 04:55 PM

Originally Posted by fherrada

I am french but i'll stay neutral on this one....But i will say this, Sarky as we call Sarkozy in France, has turned around France from corruption and has actually done a pretty good job since he took the job....Too bad some mistakes are always highlited and not the good things....

Yep I got nothing against Sarky, some of my friends out here are French and they say the same thing. Social services in France can't be beat and the new bicycle renting system is freaking brilliant.

I think people pick on him because the guy's wife is so smoking hot

VicVan · 04-28-2009, 06:18 AM

fherrada
No offence on the French thing - my wife is French, from Savoie, hence it was more here words. She is very anti dwarf man!

Cheers
Vic

fherrada · 04-28-2009, 04:26 PM

No offence at all lol not everybody like dwarfs with a beautifull woman

polostud · 05-13-2009, 05:44 PM

Anyone have any thoughts on the Dow in the US and whether we'll see a dip below 7k. Poor retail news came out today showing declining consumer spending for April when expectations were for a slight increase. I have been saying all along this market is due for a heavy pullback but how heavy is the question. Seems to me weve been riding a bull market on news that was not "as bad as expected" when the reality is there have been losses in every sector, with q2 earnings slated to show continued losses, and the US stress tests which some say were conservative advice that 10 out of 19 banks need 75 million in capital which is causing the big banks to dilute their common shares. None of this seems good and indicates to me that reality will catch up to this feeling of recovery? Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Mac · 05-14-2009, 09:20 AM

US May 9 Jobless Claims Increase setting a new record for the 15th consecutive week.

expected: 611K actual: 637K

Core PPI Increased
expected: +0.1%
actual: +0.3%
(note: this is after the numbers have been fudged via "seasonal adjustment" and exclusion of energy prices)

Summary: People are continuing to lose jobs --> expect continued increase in credit/mortgage defaults --> bank and credit card company troubles. Meanwhile, prices are rising, probably much faster than the U.S. government is willing to admit...signs of inflation rearing it's ugly head. (surprise, surprise....print money with reckless abandon and spend it like a drunken sailor ---> devalue currency --> equal misery for all )

Bermuda · 05-14-2009, 10:45 AM

I think the US Markets are due a pullback.

I think that the retail sales results in some respects are 'false'... let me explain my rational.

We have been living in economic prosperity for may years, the manufacturers and retailers of consumer goods have been able to charge top dollar for their merchandise and we the consumer have been able to make these purchases.

Since September 08 companies have been forced to offer huge discounts to attract us to buy their products. I think that anyone who has been lucky enough to hold onto at least some of their cash (savings) has been unable to pass up the 'offers of a decade' that have been presented to them.

Thus, the economy has had a bit of a boost, albeit not enough to make it grow but enough to slow the downturn. The same with the housing market in the US, im sure there were many people saving like crazy to buy a property. These saving would not have been invested in high risk areas (i hope!!). Obviously, they will have lost some but the house prices have also declined in a similar fashion offsetting their investment loss. So they are presented with opportunity to get more bang for their buck, assuming they can get a loan, and make a purchase.

I think that we will now or shortly see the true bottom of these economic times, assuming the world changing bad news is kept to a minimum.

I am really interested to know what sort of inflation the US can expect… can anyone shed a bit of light on this area?

04-23-2009, 05:37 AM	#1
VicVan UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: London Posts: 666 Favorites: ANTO, GE, XL Rep Power: 208 Reputation: 4102	Economy Chat - General News Ok will start a new thread to kick this place off a little. UK budget - no bold moves as usual. Heavier taxation is the headline grabber - 50% on people earning over £150,000. One of the highest in the G20 countries. The fall out? A gradual move from high flyers and big guns to bleed out of the county, leaving it with the CHAVs and scumbags in inner city towns, poor education and a dying economy. Well could be worse, we could be the French. Little man Sacozy buying a huge expensive, fuel eating, pollution generating, jet. Just beacuse he wanted the best one. What the hell? what an idiot. Sorry france but you really messed up with the dwarf vs the lady. Anyway - banks are mixed. Some good news, some dire. Believe accountants are getting very creative. They are becoming artists more than mathmaticans *I guess when were they ever NOT artisits. I think things in accounts shoul dbe carefully reviewed. This is when my CIMA exams come in handy (not.....the exams taught cramming) Anyway This is for general economic news from US, UK, Asia, anywhere. So keep me and others advised on the news. Noted the rally int he US ont he speach regarding the banks. Kind of taking that with a big pinch of salt right now and staying in alot of insulated small caps Cheers Vic __________________ Always do your own research and make up your own mind on any stock. Top investors follow themselves, sheep get slaughtered. Any tip, suggestion or comment posted by me is simply a suggestion / prompt for you to make up your own mind. No liability will be accepted. Its not a professional view, its a suggestion. Shares go up and down. Always spread your investments, always set your stops both up and down. If shorting or Futures investing, know what your doing. You cant beat the sharks, but you can swim on their back. Trade lucky.

04-23-2009, 08:25 AM	#3
Superfly UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Twin Cities/Minocqua WI Posts: 397 Favorites: RIG, HEB, LVS, KFN Rep Power: 197 Reputation: 4139	Well, here is what went on in the good ole' USA yesterday, as long as were on the topic of general economy. Apparently our government has their noses in Lockheed Martin's business, and feels that we need some more government oversight and goverment workers in the workforce. Id take Sarkozy any day ;) Pentagon takes back job outsourced to Lockheed - International Business Times - __________________ If you are given a chance to be a role model, I think you should always take it because you can influence a person's life in a positive light, and that's what I want to do. That's what it's all about. Tiger Woods I'm putting in my market order right now on this b! --> TTNP thread title in Premarket 5/7/09..that one is for the ages! Yes we Can...Yes we Will!!!

04-23-2009, 03:32 PM	#4
fherrada UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Sparta, Georgia Posts: 163 Favorites: CNFO, CTIC, CAST Rep Power: 94 Reputation: 1793	I am french but i'll stay neutral on this one....But i will say this, Sarky as we call Sarkozy in France, has turned around France from corruption and has actually done a pretty good job since he took the job....Too bad some mistakes are always highlited and not the good things.... __________________ Before doing battle, in the temple one calculates and will win, because many calculations were made." Sun Tzu

04-28-2009, 06:18 AM	#6
VicVan UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: London Posts: 666 Favorites: ANTO, GE, XL Rep Power: 208 Reputation: 4102	fherrada No offence on the French thing - my wife is French, from Savoie, hence it was more here words. She is very anti dwarf man! Cheers Vic __________________ Always do your own research and make up your own mind on any stock. Top investors follow themselves, sheep get slaughtered. Any tip, suggestion or comment posted by me is simply a suggestion / prompt for you to make up your own mind. No liability will be accepted. Its not a professional view, its a suggestion. Shares go up and down. Always spread your investments, always set your stops both up and down. If shorting or Futures investing, know what your doing. You cant beat the sharks, but you can swim on their back. Trade lucky.

04-28-2009, 04:26 PM	#7
fherrada UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Sparta, Georgia Posts: 163 Favorites: CNFO, CTIC, CAST Rep Power: 94 Reputation: 1793	No offence at all lol not everybody like dwarfs with a beautifull woman __________________ Before doing battle, in the temple one calculates and will win, because many calculations were made." Sun Tzu

05-13-2009, 05:44 PM	#8
polostud Junior Trader Join Date: May 2009 Location: Richmond Posts: 1 Favorites: XL C SAY Rep Power: 16 Reputation: 10	Anyone have any thoughts on the Dow in the US and whether we'll see a dip below 7k. Poor retail news came out today showing declining consumer spending for April when expectations were for a slight increase. I have been saying all along this market is due for a heavy pullback but how heavy is the question. Seems to me weve been riding a bull market on news that was not "as bad as expected" when the reality is there have been losses in every sector, with q2 earnings slated to show continued losses, and the US stress tests which some say were conservative advice that 10 out of 19 banks need 75 million in capital which is causing the big banks to dilute their common shares. None of this seems good and indicates to me that reality will catch up to this feeling of recovery? Anyone have any thoughts on this?

05-14-2009, 09:20 AM	#9
Mac UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Nowhere, Land Posts: 250 Rep Power: 185 Reputation: 3940	US May 9 Jobless Claims Increase setting a new record for the 15th consecutive week. expected: 611K actual: 637K Core PPI Increased expected: +0.1% actual: +0.3% (note: this is after the numbers have been fudged via "seasonal adjustment" and exclusion of energy prices) Summary: People are continuing to lose jobs --> expect continued increase in credit/mortgage defaults --> bank and credit card company troubles. Meanwhile, prices are rising, probably much faster than the U.S. government is willing to admit...signs of inflation rearing it's ugly head. (surprise, surprise....print money with reckless abandon and spend it like a drunken sailor ---> devalue currency --> equal misery for all ) __________________ -Mac p.s. remember, it can always go lower, unless it's already at zero.

05-14-2009, 10:45 AM	#10
Bermuda Junior Trader Join Date: May 2009 Location: hamilton Posts: 11 Favorites: rnr,stp,xl Rep Power: 31 Reputation: 371	My 2 cents I think the US Markets are due a pullback. I think that the retail sales results in some respects are 'false'... let me explain my rational. We have been living in economic prosperity for may years, the manufacturers and retailers of consumer goods have been able to charge top dollar for their merchandise and we the consumer have been able to make these purchases. Since September 08 companies have been forced to offer huge discounts to attract us to buy their products. I think that anyone who has been lucky enough to hold onto at least some of their cash (savings) has been unable to pass up the 'offers of a decade' that have been presented to them. Thus, the economy has had a bit of a boost, albeit not enough to make it grow but enough to slow the downturn. The same with the housing market in the US, im sure there were many people saving like crazy to buy a property. These saving would not have been invested in high risk areas (i hope!!). Obviously, they will have lost some but the house prices have also declined in a similar fashion offsetting their investment loss. So they are presented with opportunity to get more bang for their buck, assuming they can get a loan, and make a purchase. I think that we will now or shortly see the true bottom of these economic times, assuming the world changing bad news is kept to a minimum. I am really interested to know what sort of inflation the US can expect… can anyone shed a bit of light on this area?

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