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Old 01-29-2019, 11:01 PM   Nav to Top  #41
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China's manufacturing sector alarms currency markets



China's manufacturing sector activity in January was likely to shrink for the second month in a row, heightening concerns about the risks associated with a slowdown in China and a threat to the global economy.

Industrial leader Caterpillar has become another major international company that warned of declining demand in China, followed by chip makers and Apple. According to the average forecast of 33 economists, the official index of purchasing managers in China (PMI) in January will drop to 49.3 points from 49.4 points in December. January figures may be the weakest since February 2016. In addition, in front of the big New Year holidays and many businesses just close. Some are closing even earlier than usual, because the protracted trade war with the United States has a negative effect on orders. If Washington and Beijing do not reach a compromise that will ease the pressure on tariffs, many businesses are likely to close down forever.

In any case, weak PMI data increases the likelihood that Beijing can accelerate and intensify policy mitigation and stimulation efforts this year. Nevertheless, there remains a high probability that in the coming months business conditions in China may deteriorate, growth may fall below 6 percent in the first half of the year from 6.4 percent in the fourth quarter and stabilize only at the end of the year. This is confirmed by sources in the government, who report that the authorities are planning to reduce the growth target to 6-6.5 percent this year from 6.5 percent in 2018.

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Old 01-30-2019, 08:49 PM   Nav to Top  #42
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The pound will continue to try to gain a foothold, and the dollar is waiting for the Fed report



The pound will continue to attempt to strengthen its position after fears of the "problematic" Brexit have declined, and the dollar will weaken on the eve of the Fed meeting.

Last week, the pound reached $ 1.3218, the highest since mid-October, in the hope that London will be able to make a deal with the EU. The deadline set for Brexit, March 29, is likely to be extended, and the main question for the pound is when and how the renewal decision will be made. As for the dollar, the focus is now shifting back to key events that threaten the dollar with more serious consequences, such as the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, US-China trade negotiations, and the US jobs report. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

Markets are waiting for signals about the future of the Fed's policy after recent official comments made it clear that rates of rate hikes this year will be reduced amid growing uncertainty about the state of the US economy, the global economy and fragile financial markets. Experts estimate the likelihood of a rate hike in 2019 as very low, although some still expect two approaches in the second and fourth quarters. The dollar may face pressure if the Fed decides to highlight the negative effects of the closure of the US government in its report.

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Old 02-06-2019, 02:00 AM   Nav to Top  #43
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The dollar clings to any opportunity for growth, like its Australian colleague



The dollar continued to increase on the eve of the speech of US President Donald Trump, which, according to investors, may indicate progress in trade negotiations between the US and China. In general, a modest recovery in investor risk appetite led to a sharp rise in US government bond yields, but trading in foreign exchange markets was rather weak, as many Asian markets were closed for the New Year holidays. The Australian dollar gained by recovering its recent losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates at a record low.

Now all the attention is focused on the appeal of Trump, which was postponed due to the closure of the US government. Markets do not rule out more optimistic comments on US trade policy, after the closure of the Trump government is likely to seek political victories. This should be positive for the current risk-friendly environment (reliable US data, but cautious by the Fed) and can support the currencies of developing countries against the dollar.

The Aussie strengthened by 0.3 percent, to $0.7247. The currency was trading in negative territory for most of the session, after weak retail sales data in December, but it moved up after the RBA kept rates on hold. It will be difficult for the Australian dollar to overcome the dollar mark of 0.7300, given the outlook for market rates, which are still priced with a high probability of weakening this year.

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Old 02-07-2019, 11:12 PM   Nav to Top  #44
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Bank of England downgraded forecasts for economic growth due to Brexit



The management of the Bank of England at a meeting on Thursday, February 7, unanimously voted to keep the key rate at 0.75. Regulatory officials said the UK economy slowed down late last year and early this year.

Representatives of the Bank of England said that the country's economy in 2019 could show the slowest GDP growth in 10 years due to the uncertainty around Brexit, as well as a slowdown in global growth.

At the same time, representatives of the regulator said that they would return to raising interest rates in the event of the implementation of a soft scenario of a country's exit from the EU.

In addition, the Bank of England downgraded the growth forecast for the country's economy in 2019 from 1.7% to 1.2%. The growth forecast for 2020 was also lowered - from 1.7% to 1.5%.

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Old 02-12-2019, 12:43 AM   Nav to Top  #45
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Oil trades in different directions on conflicting factors



The price of Brent crude is showing mixed trends at the beginning of a new trading week. Quotes of the asset vary over a wide range of $61.30-62.30 per barrel. Market participants regain data on the growth in the number of drilling rigs in the United States and follow the news on trade negotiations between the United States and China.

Markets are awaiting the outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, the next round of which is scheduled for February 14-15. Doubts that trade disputes will finally be resolved put pressure on the course of oil. An additional negative came from the report of oil and gas service company Baker Hughes, which reflected an increase in the number of active drilling rigs by 7– to 854 units.

At the same time, oil received some support following the words of OPEC President and the Minister of Energy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Suhail Al-Mazrui that the oil market will be balanced in the first quarter of this year.

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Old 02-13-2019, 12:52 AM   Nav to Top  #46
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New Zealand Holds Official Cash Rate Steady At 1.75%



The Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday kept its Official Cash Rate at the record low of 1.75 percent for the 15th straight meeting.

The decision was in line with expectations following a 0.25 percent rate cut in November 2016.

The central bank has pared a collective 0.50 percent from its benchmark in the last 25 months, lowering the rate in six of the last 22 meetings after six straight sessions with no change.

GDP growth is expected to pick up through 2019 and the OCR is expected to be unchanged through this year and into 2020, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr noted.

"Trading-partner growth is expected to further moderate in 2019 and global commodity prices have already softened, reducing the tailwind that New Zealand economic activity has benefited from," Orr said. "The risk of a sharper downturn in trading-partner growth has also heightened over recent months."

Core consumer prices are expected to gradually rise to the mid-point of the central bank's target range at 2 percent - although inflation could rise faster if cost increases are passed on.

"There are upside and downside risks to this outlook," Orr said. "A more pronounced global downturn could weigh on domestic demand, but inflation could rise faster if firms pass on cost increases to prices to a greater extent."

He added that the direction of the next move could be up or down.

"We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximizing sustainable employment and maintaining low and stable inflation," Orr said.

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Old 02-14-2019, 02:37 AM   Nav to Top  #47
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Euro Rises Following German GDP Data



Destatis has published German preliminary GDP data for the fourth quarter and wholesale price index for January at 2:00 am ET Thursday.

After these data, the euro rose against its major rivals.

The euro was trading at 125.39 against the yen, 1.1381 against the franc, 1.1294 against the greenback and 0.8768 against the pound around 2:01 am ET.

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Old 02-15-2019, 12:06 AM   Nav to Top  #48
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China CPI Slows To 1.7% On Year In January



Consumer prices in China were up 1.7 percent on year in January, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

That was shy of expectations for an increase of 1.9 percent, which would have been unchanged from the December reading.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices were up 0.5 percent following the flat reading in December.

Producer prices were up 0.1 percent on year, shy of expectations for an increase of 0.5 percent and down from 0.9 percent in the previous month.

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Old 02-18-2019, 01:43 AM   Nav to Top  #49
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U.S. Dollar Falls On Trade Talk Hopes

The U.S. dollar depreciated against its most major counterparts in the Asian session on Monday, as investors awaited trade talks between the U.S. and China beginning this week, after making some progress in talks held last week.

A statement from the White House said high level U.S.-China trade talks this week led to "progress between the two parties", but noted "much work remains."

Trump said that the meetings were very productive and he is ready to extend the March 1 deadline and hold off a planned tariff hike on Chinese goods.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting are due on Wednesday, with investors awaiting more clues on its rate hike path for this year.

The greenback declined to a 5-day low of 1.2920 against the pound, down from a 5-day high of 1.2899 hit at 5:45 pm ET. The greenback is seen finding support around the 1.32 level.

The greenback slipped to a weekly low of 1.0029 against the franc, following a high of 1.0055 seen at 5:15 pm ET. The next likely support for the greenback is seen around the 0.99 level.

Pulling away from an early high of 1.1289 against the euro, the greenback fell to a 5-day low of 1.1325. On the downside, 1.15 is possibly seen as the next support level for the greenback.

The greenback dropped to a 5-day low of 1.3225 against the loonie, near 2-week lows of 0.6893 against the kiwi and 0.7159 against the aussie, from its early highs of 1.3255, 0.6855 and 0.7133, respectively. The greenback is poised to challenge support around 1.29 against the loonie, 0.70 against the kiwi and 0.74 against the aussie.

On the flip side, the greenback held steady against the yen, after having advanced to 110.58 at 6:55 pm ET. The pair was valued at 110.46 at Friday's close.

Data from the Cabinet Office showed that Japan core machine orders fell 0.1 percent on month in December - beating expectations for a decline of 1.0 percent following the flat reading in November.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders were up 0.9 percent - shy of forecasts for an increase of 3.4 percent following the 0.8 percent increase in the previous month.

The U.S. markets remain closed for Presidents Day holiday.


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Old 02-18-2019, 11:58 PM   Nav to Top  #50
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EUR/USD: real weakness of the greenback or vain hopes for progress in the negotiations?



In recent weeks, the greenback has shown quite an impressive rally. However, an ambiguous statistical data from the United States, and then positive news about the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, then forced it to switch to defense mode against most of the currencies from the G10.

Against the background of improving global risk appetite, the EUR/USD pair fell to the bottom of the level of 1.1250, recovered above the level of 1.1300 and today is trying to gain a foothold above this mark.

Last week, the dollar received the main blow from the internal statistics, which turned out to be significantly worse than the forecast values. In particular, in December, retail sales in the United States declined at the fastest rate in almost a decade, which has led to renewed talk about preparing for a slowdown in the US economy and the best times for the greenback are over.

It is assumed that this week a weak report on retail sales will continue to put pressure on the dollar, especially since the minutes of the Fed's January meeting, which will be published this Wednesday, are likely to confirm the regulator's intention to maintain a wait-and-see position in March.

At the same time, the main negative factor for the single European currency is the fact that the ECB and the European Commission have recently revised downward forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the region, which in turn postpones the ECB interest rate hike to a later date. In addition, there is still tension on the political scene: the UK's uncontrolled exit from the EU is still on the agenda. Investors are not optimistic about the possibility of introducing trade duties on European cars from the United States.

Currently, positive market expectations regarding the course of trade negotiations between the US and China are the main factor supporting the euro.

Last Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced significant progress in this direction.

It should be noted that previously something similar could already be observed. One can only hope that the White House's comments on the "good pace" of the talks (which, by the way, only two weeks are left) are a sign of a real breakthrough, not false promises.

Thus, to some extent, the further growth of the EUR/USD pair will depend on whether the parties enter into a trade agreement or the United States will extend the deadline for signing it.

However, according to experts, the "bulls" on the euro are not particularly counting on anything, since only a breakthrough above the mark of 1.15 will be a sign of upward dynamics.

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