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Old 01-15-2019, 03:45 AM   Nav to Top  #31
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Dutch Retail Sales Growth At 7-Month High



Dutch retail sales grew the most in seven months during November, mainly driven by non-food sales, figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday.

Retail sales rose a working-day adjusted 4.1 percent year-on-year following a 3.3 percent increase in October.

The pace of growth was the fastest since April, when sales rose 5.8 percent.

Food sales rose 2.5 percent and non-food sales increased 3.8 percent, largely led by increased demand for consumer electronics, shoes and leather goods.

Online sales surged nearly 20 percent in November.

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Old 01-16-2019, 11:57 PM   Nav to Top  #32
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British authorities hold power, Nomura sells EUR / GBP



There is a possibility that British Prime Minister Theresa May will resign within a few days after a devastating vote. Still, Nomura does not believe in tough Brexit, waiting for the stabilization of the political situation in the country and the growth rate of sterling. Thus, currency strategists explained the opening of a short position in EUR / GBP pair from 0.8880.

London representatives of the bank reported that the position of British Prime Minister Theresa May looks quite constructive. Her desire to lengthen the term of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and the intention to begin inter-party negotiations on the country's withdrawal from the group will most likely allow the British government to retain power.

If a vote of no confidence is announced to the government, the pound may drop by 3%.

The bank estimates that next week traders will focus on what Ms. May can offer as a backup plan.

Many political analysts believe that the British Prime Minister will once again "stand on his feet." May lost in the House of Commons, but "there is no immediate threat to her position." Theresa May will remain in power, as the Democratic Unionist Party and the Conservatives, who voted against her unpopular EU exit deal, will support her.

Note that Ms. May herself contacted, saying that the British government is already busy searching for an acceptable Brexit plan, which would receive the support of parliamentarians.

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Old 01-17-2019, 02:40 AM   Nav to Top  #33
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Oil reserves in the US for the week decreased by 0.6%, stronger than forecast

According to the Energy Information Administration of the Ministry of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the US (excluding strategic reserves) declined by 2.7 million barrels, or 0.6%, to 437.1 million barrels. Analysts predicted a decline in stocks of only 1.32 million barrels, to 438.38 million barrels.

Oil production in the United States increased by 200 thousand barrels up to 11.9 million barrels per day.

Oil reserves at the country's largest terminal in Cushing decreased by 0.8 million barrels to 41.5 million barrels. Gasoline stocks also showed an increase of 3% (+7.5 million barrels), to 255.6 million barrels. Distillate stocks rose by 2.1% (+3 million barrels), to 143 million barrels.

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Old 01-18-2019, 01:57 AM   Nav to Top  #34
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China's growth will slow in 2019 and threatens the financial world

China's economy is expected to continue to slow down this year particularly on domestic demand and exports affected by US tariffs. Beijing will most likely have to deploy additional incentive measures.



According to forecasts, China's economic growth will slow to 6.3 percent this year and will be the weakest in 29 years. A significant slowdown in growth in China has already been observed. The resumption of negotiations between the United States and China has increased optimism that Washington may agree to suspend the planned tariff increase, which was originally scheduled to take effect this month. However, a comprehensive agreement to end the dispute seems unlikely, given the number of highly controversial and politically sensitive issues. Even if both sides can conclude a long-term trade deal, it will provide only minor relief to the Chinese economy if Beijing cannot increase domestic investment and demand.

Sources said that China plans to lower its target for economic growth between 6 to 6.5 percent this year. Weak industrial growth and lower consumer spending reduce company profits. Moreover, it also discourages new investment and increases the risk of high job losses. Since earlier growth measures had little impact, we expect Beijing to deploy more incentives in the coming months to prevent a sharp slowdown. More large-scale tax cuts are expected, along with measures to increase consumer demand for products such as household appliances and cars. Both fiscal and monetary policies eased over the past few months and this should begin to spread to the real economy by the second half of this year.



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Old 01-22-2019, 12:04 AM   Nav to Top  #35
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Euro may strengthen against the dollar to $ 1.22 - CIBC



China's economy is expected to continue to slow down this year particularly on domestic demand and exports affected by US tariffs. Beijing will most likely have to deploy additional incentive measures.

Despite weak eurozone statistics, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) analysts remain bullish on the euro.

"Eurozone statistics for the third quarter turned out to be the weakest over the past four years, which apparently explains the uncertain behavior of the single European currency. It is assumed that external trade pressure, as well as political uncertainty in Italy and France, will continue, causing a further slowdown in the pace of recovery in eurozone GDP," representatives of the financial institution said.

"Meanwhile, the situation in the European labor market remains favorable, which ensures a high level of consumer spending, and hence GDP growth. In the third quarter, wages increased by a record value in almost 10 years. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell below 8% for the first time in the last decade," they added.

"Despite the fact that the balance of risks has probably shifted to the negative side, the ECB continues to consider the economic outlook for the eurozone to be rather positive, which will further allow the regulator to carry out, albeit careful, but still raising interest rates. It is possible that this will happen in the second half of the year against the backdrop of consistently high inflation expectations," the experts noted.

According to the CIBC forecast, by the end of this year, the euro against the dollar may rise to $ 1.22.

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Old 01-22-2019, 02:45 AM   Nav to Top  #36
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IMF lowers global growth forecasts, what to expect financial markets



The International Monetary Fund has reduced its forecasts for global economic growth for 2019 and 2020 due to weakness in Europe and in some emerging markets, and said that trade tensions could destabilize the world economy even more. This is the second decline in three months. The lender also called a more serious than expected slowdown in the Chinese economy and the possible "problem" Brexit risks that could cause turbulence in financial markets. The IMF expects the growth of the world economy in 2019 to be 3.5 percent, and in 2020, 3.6 percent, which is lower by 0.2 and 0.1 percent, respectively, from forecasts in October last year.

"The trend of global growth is shifting downward. Escalating trade tensions beyond that already included in the forecast remains a key source of risk. Trade policy uncertainties and concerns about escalation and retaliation will lead to a decrease in industrial investment, disruption of supply chains and a slowdown in productivity growth. As a result, worsening corporate profitability prospects may affect financial market sentiment and further weaken economic growth," the IMF said in a statement.

The IMF said that growth in the eurozone will be moderate, falling from 1.8 percent in 2018 to 1.6 percent in 2019, which is 0.3 percentage points lower than predicted three months ago. The IMF also lowered its growth forecast in 2019 for developing countries to 4.5 percent, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous forecast and 4.7 percent in 2018. But it kept its growth forecasts for the USA, 2.5 percent this year and 1.8 percent in 2020, indicating continued growth in domestic demand.

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Old 01-23-2019, 02:26 AM   Nav to Top  #37
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EUR/USD pair continues to drift south in anticipation of the ECB meeting

In anticipation of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held this Thursday, the euro will remain under pressure.

Concerns about the slowdown in the global economy, expectations of the dovish sentiment of the ECB, as well as high demand for safe-haven assets, allowed the "bears" on EUR/USD to continue the attack.

For the second time in three months, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has worsened the forecast for global GDP growth over the next two years.

In particular, the assessment of the dynamics of Germany's GDP for 2019 was reduced from 1.9% to 1.3% and Italy from 1% to 0.6%. At the same time, the forecast for the US economy remained unchanged, which, apparently, played into the hands of the greenback.

Meanwhile, the EUR/USD bulls are waiting for another test this week. On January 24, the ECB will hold its first meeting this year.

The main intrigue is how "dovish" will be the statements of its chairman, Mario Draghi, at a press conference on Thursday. This time, the ECB will most likely keep its key interest rate at the same level, whether the Finnish Institute refuses to raise the rate in 2019 or even announce the pumping of the banking system with liquidity is not yet clear.

If the comments of the ECB management on the results of the next meeting will have cautious optimism, sales of the euro in anticipation of an important event may turn into purchases based on facts.

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Old 01-24-2019, 02:07 AM   Nav to Top  #38
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Bank of Japan will continue large-scale incentives

In anticipation of the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which will be held this Thursday, the euro will remain under pressure.

The Bank of Japan has reduced its inflation forecasts and retained a large-scale incentive program amid growing risks for the economy in the form of trade protectionism and weakening global demand. The trade war between the United States and China, Japan's largest trading partners, is increasing pressure on the third largest economy in the world and undermining politicians' many years of efforts to promote sustainable growth.

As expected, the Bank of Japan has cut its inflation forecasts, reinforcing the view that it will have to continue unprecedented economic support for some time. The regulator noted that despite growing risks such as trade disputes and Brexit, Japan's economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace. However, a recent survey of economists has shown that external factors have increased Japan's chances for a downturn in the fiscal year starting in April, making it harder for the Bank of Japan to achieve a 2 percent inflation target.

The Bank of Japan confirmed its intention to continue buying Japanese government bonds and left the short-term interest rate unchanged at minus 0.1 percent. Many economists believe that the next step of the Bank of Japan will be the normalization of policy. Most expect it to happen in 2020 or later.

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Old 01-25-2019, 02:44 AM   Nav to Top  #39
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ECB press conference: Highlights of Draghi's comments

The ECB has left its policy unchanged. We give the main comments of the ECB President Mario Draghi at a press conference.

Evaluation but not a policy discussion

"We didn't have to discuss the consequences of the risk balance. Today's meeting was mainly devoted to an assessment: where are we and why are we here, how long will the slowdown take place, will the slowdown worsen or will a lower level wait for us These are the questions that have been asked ".



Muffled inflation:
"General inflation is likely to continue to decline in the coming months. Core inflation remains generally subdued, but pressure on labor costs continues to increase and expand amid a high level of capacity utilization and toughening labor markets."

Mid-term inflation:
"Looking into the future, we expect core inflation to grow in the medium term, with the support of our monetary policy measures, continued economic growth, and rising wage growth."



The economic growth:
"The short-term growth momentum is likely to be weaker than previously thought. In the future, growth in the eurozone economy will continue to be supported by favorable financial conditions, further growth in employment and wages, lower energy prices and continued, albeit somewhat slower, expansion of global activity."

Stimulation:
"Significant monetary policy incentives remain necessary to support further increases in domestic price pressure and overall inflation in the medium term. The Board of Governors is ready to use all of its tools, depending on the situation, in order to ensure a constant movement of inflation towards the goal. "

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Old 01-28-2019, 09:58 PM   Nav to Top  #40
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S & P: The US economy has lost at least $ 6 billion due to the shutter



Analysts at rating agency Standard & Poor's estimate that the US economy lost at least $ 6 billion during the suspension of government work.

S & P Global Rating experts believe that as a result of the shutdown, the US budget lost $ 1.2 billion a week since the suspension of government departments led to a decrease in productivity and a low level of business economic activity.

The shutdown was caused by the reluctance of the US Congress to allocate $ 5.7 billion for primary funding for the construction of a wall between Mexico and the US, while negative consequences, according to S & P experts, have already exceeded the amount requested by President Donald Trump.

Analysts also noted that, despite the resumption of government agencies, the negative effect of the shutdown is likely to affect financial markets and business confidence in the future of the country's economy.

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