|04-09-2012, 03:11 AM||#1|
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EUR Gains as U.S. Economic Recovery Remains Sluggish
The markets were mixed in limited holiday trade on Friday. Investors’ focus was on the U.S. jobs report even though fears for Spain have grown since its borrowing costs soared on Wednesday in its first debt auction since an austerity budget last week. The report showed that Non-farm payrolls rose by 120K vs. 203K expected. The report was disappointing and it kept the door open for the Fed to provide more monetary support to the sluggish economy. But Europe’s crisis has not ended yet. In addition EU officials are still far from convincing the investors to buy the euro. Sometimes it is better to look at the larger time frames before analyzing the market. Monthly charts show that EUR/USD pair is capped at 1.3385, which is moving average(100) level. Weekly chart indicates the pair has been moving inside a descending channel since late-2008. And finally the daily charts suggest that there is more resistance to the upside. 1.3030-00 zone is still a strong and psychological support but the question is “how long will that support hold?”. If price recovers and moves higher, resistance will be at 1.3150, the 100-day moving average, and 1.3214 will be offering strong resistance above that. If the bears can’t pass 1.3150, look for support at 1.3030 and 1.2970. A break of this level would increase speculative selling pressure.
The pair gained on Friday after it found support at its 50-day moving average at 1.5810. The pair had closed the week at 1.5873. On Monday we may see some consolidation between 1.5800 and 1.5900. It is quite possible that the pair will continue its bullish tendencies, but the pair has to break the important resistance located at 1.5900. If the pair can stay above this level, look for 1.5953, 1.5991 and 1.6060. However, if the bears successfully can pull the pair below 1.5800, expect to see support at 1.5736 and 1.5650.
The pair is trying to break 0.9200 resistance by the time I write. If the bulls can penetrate 0.9200 resistance, look for 0.9250 and 0.9320. If the bears win the fight, there will be support at 0.9100-0.9080 area and 0.9000. Also keep an eye on the EUR/CHF as it is just above the 1.20 floor level and if SNB intervenes to protect this level, USD/CHF would be affected as well.
Bullish momentum is diminishing since USD/JPY touched its descending trend line at 84.15 and failed to break this resistance. It is possible to see pair touching 81.10 before it bounces to 82.05. In order to resume its bullish trend the pair has to break and hold above 82.80. If the bears win the fight and break 81.10 support, look 80.08.
At the end of each article put Source: Fx Technical Trade
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|05-01-2012, 01:45 AM||#2|
Join Date: May 2012
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This only shows that the world economy is still unstable.
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