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[6tp]

This is short term, CBM running like crazy up 25% WTN halted on news. Likely merger, if it happens even at current WTN pricing could be a solid gain when it crosses .75 WTN for each CBM you hold. LSE open for another 10 minutes, good luck!

[6tp]

Well, I hope some of you got in on this.

Western Canadian Coal and Cambrian Mining Combine To Create a Larger, Stronger Coal Company

WTN still halted, this could be big if WTN runs as well. Those numbers 57p were based on the 1.37 close!

[slarty]

Hi 6tp,
I think we've had the top for the moment, dropped back a couple of pennies by close.
If the time on your post is our UK time then we'd already had the rise. I find that when we hear the news through any of the standard news channels, us lot have already missed the boat, 'cause it got out some other way ahead of time.
Last time it was at this level was nov 10th 2008.
It turned a profit last qtr of 2008, and is only around 20% of it's 52wk high, so it's worth some more research and DD.
Thanks
Slarty

[6tp]

Yes, the strong buy was when WTN was halted that little window end of day LSE start TSX you could get it in the 40s. I think it will open up at 55-60p with the deal all but done (must pass vote but both boards are behind it and it is a good thing for shareholders). Even at WTN close of 1.4 would be ~59p so even those that got in at 48p should have a 20%+ day.

Should be interesting tomorrow. There is a little misconception about dilution because CBM owns a lot of WTN, the dilution is really minor. Even still, WTN is holding strong. If the arbitrage gap does close right it it makes sense to sell CBM and but WTN on the off chance the deal does not get approval. Very interested to see where the price sits at open...5 hours until we know!

[PanKleks]

Interesting tip... any idea whether this will eventually get to ~59p?

The confusion around the numbers involved in the deal may be keeping it from rising at the moment.

[6tp]

Originally Posted by PanKleks Interesting tip... any idea whether this will eventually get to ~59p? The confusion around the numbers involved in the deal may be keeping it from rising at the moment.

This is interesting, I expected this to gap up but it seems it will wait until the deal is approved officially. As to the 59 price, that is dependent on the price of WTN since it is actually .75 shares WTN for each CBM held. If WTN increases, that would improve, but if it fell, that would decline.

As for the original pick, it was in the cdn forum 5/8 at 40p 40% arbitrage opportunity with long upside

At WTN current open 1.43 this should be at 60p so there is still a 20% arbitrage surprisingly. I really thought this gap would close up. I suppose with general index reversal there is possibility this gap will close just with a decline in WTN but if they announce strong earnings, that could also go the other way. I would say this is no longer a strong buy given the risk but still very good long as the upside with WTN is very good after the merger is done the combined entity will be in a great position.

As for getting the approvals and it being totally done (so you hold WTN not CBM) that will likely be July. It is also possible, but not likely that the deal is not approved. I consider this very remote but obviously given the spread people see some risk still.

[mobgma]

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