Long CZA (AIM / Coal) - Long - Page 3

VicVan · 05-22-2009, 11:34 AM

sweet huh nearly 100

AndyB · 05-30-2009, 06:56 PM

Spot the difference competition for you guys!

JonW · 05-31-2009, 02:41 AM

In a hotel room and just spent half an hour typing a post for this thread only to lose it when I posted as it jumped back to the hotel internet page - Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!

You will have to excuse me if i now do this in sections and if it is a lot shorter than I intended but I'm not willing to lose it all again!!

Okay, I'm calmer now!!

First thing I was gonna say was, Andy, can you post the two charts seperately please - they are too small to read clearly. Also what software are you using for the charts, what does it cost, and does it integrate to real time prices?

Okay, gonna post this, see what happens and then try a longer one!!

JonW

JonW · 05-31-2009, 02:46 AM

Friday's copy of Investors Chronicle recommends CZA as a Buy with a decent sized article that gives a strong write up and recommends a Buy at 89p. I'm sure plenty of us here have got in a lot lower than 89p (thanks to Vic in my case!)

Here's the closing paragraph of the IC article:-

"Edison Investment Research values Coal of Africa's first two projects Mooiplaats and Vele, at 300p per share. So, without even factoring in the value of the Makhado project implied by the Exxaro deal, the shares are undervalued. With value expected to be cemented by the signing of commercial deals with Eskom and ArcelorMittal, and with the imminent catalyst of first coal sales, the shares have plenty of upward drivers. Buy"

Gonna post this in case I lose it again - more to follow

(sorry I'm having to break it up like this!)

JonW

JonW · 05-31-2009, 02:52 AM

Originally Posted by JonW

"Edison Investment Research values Coal of Africa's first two projects Mooiplaats and Vele, at 300p per share. So, without even factoring in the vcalue of the Makhado project implied by the Exxaro deal, the shares are undervalued. With value expected to be cemented by the signing of commercial deals with Eskom and ArcelorMittal, and with the imminent catalyst of first coal sales, the shares have plenty of upward drivers. Buy"

For those that won't get to read the full article, you might want to know the following snapshot numbers:-

Mooiplaats, first coal Nov 08, expect 2m tonnes per annum 2010 rising to 2.5m t.p.a by 2016

Vele, the richer coking coal, ArcelorMittal (who have a 16.9% stake in CZA with rumours they want to increase that substantially) have signed a LOA to take 2.5m t.p.a from Vele or Makhado with option to increase to 5m t.p.a!

Makhado, potential of 1.5m t.p.a. expected Q4 2010 and rising to 5m t.p.a. - Exxaro have an option to acquire 30% at 20% discount on the net present value (est £275m)

Impressive numbers for a 89p stock!

Conclusion follows in next post (sorry again!)

JonW

JonW · 05-31-2009, 02:58 AM

Originally Posted by JonW

For those that won't get to read the full article, you might want to know the following snapshot numbers:-

Mooiplaats, first coal Nov 08, expect 2m tonnes per annum 2010 rising to 2.5m t.p.a by 2016

Vele, the richer coking coal, ArcelorMittal (who have a 16.9% stake in CZA with rumours they want to increase that substantially) have signed a LOA to take 2.5m t.p.a from Vele or Makhado with option to increase to 5m t.p.a!

Makhado, potential of 1.5m t.p.a. expected Q4 2010 and rising to 5m t.p.a. - Exxaro have an option to acquire 30% at 20% discount on the net present value (est £275m)

Impressive numbers for a 89p stock!

CZA.L

Please read previous three posts to explain why this is all dis-jointed.

Bottom line conclusion is:-

If you currently are in this stock then HOLD, if you are not in it this is a STRONG BUY (preferable first thing on Monday as The Investors Chronicle Buy recommendation will probably have an impact). If you decide to take profits at some stage I would strongly recommend that you keep some in until at least Q4 2010 when the full value of this stock will start to come through. the only thing that would change this recommendation would be if ArcelorMittal make an offer for a substantially increased stake in the company and the share price reacts. Then you might want to take your profits.

Cheers
JonW

AndyB · 05-31-2009, 07:01 AM

Hi jon, are you sure you cannot see that chart properly? I can view it even on my mobile. Just click on the image and it zooms it.

The fundamentals of the stock are great, but the technicals say it has just completed 5 waves up, and now needs to complete an abc correction down. Preliminary price target for the correction is 73p

The way to trade a stock like this- where you expect much more upside, is to let the correction play out- a few weeks- then add to the position when the next 5 waves starts and move a common stop up.
Anyway, corrections can take all shapes and forms, it may move sideways, it may pull back. I'll be watching this stock and i'll keep you updated as to what i see!

VicVan · 06-02-2009, 06:52 AM

could break 100 today
another near 10% rise after the dip

AndyB · 06-02-2009, 08:04 AM

Fundamentally this company is great, but the chart looks like very high risk to be buying right now. I would like to see it retrace properly.

To me the chart (from an Elliot Wave perspective) looks like it has completed waves 1-2-3-4-5 of an uptrend, tried to do an A-B-C correction but the B was higher than the 5th wave in the uptrend. That's bad news from a charting perspective as C is often a sharp correction down when this occurs.

As an example right now the Dow/S&P500 completed a 5-wave uptrend in 2000, then tried to A-B-C correct but guess what, B (2007) was higher than the 5th wave top (2000). Now C on the Dow/SPX is set to be brutal.

The wave count I've employed on the attached chart could be wrong however - CZA could currently be executing the 5th wave meaning its got more upside. However I just do not feel comfortable buying this stock with this price action right now.

BTW like my first chart on CFM that was wrong (!!) picking a top using charts is actually very difficult so it may indeed run another +20% before it retraces, but I'd rather know for sure I got a good risk:reward long entry than just pile in long now.

Anyway CZA is firmly on my watchlist. WIll be adding long when I see a decent opportunity on the chart.

GL guys

VicVan · 06-02-2009, 08:07 AM

Yep - until financials

Their next financials will show huge cash flows in from the massive coal cutting operation which started December / January. Also with a reiteration of their massive and far bigger port and rail allocation / licences.
Cashflow is king here as they not made and money as yet

So yes, while its been brought from the mittel stake and mittel rumour, the next financials, should hold it, and push it towards 200 pence over a 12 month period. THen some if the economy recovers.

But yeah, I would look as new to jump in now. Rumour on Mittel buying 100% has spiked it heavy.

Fundamentals vs the chart

05-22-2009, 11:34 AM	#21
VicVan UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: London Posts: 666 Favorites: ANTO, GE, XL Rep Power: 207 Reputation: 4102	sweet huh nearly 100 __________________ Always do your own research and make up your own mind on any stock. Top investors follow themselves, sheep get slaughtered. Any tip, suggestion or comment posted by me is simply a suggestion / prompt for you to make up your own mind. No liability will be accepted. Its not a professional view, its a suggestion. Shares go up and down. Always spread your investments, always set your stops both up and down. If shorting or Futures investing, know what your doing. You cant beat the sharks, but you can swim on their back. Trade lucky.
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05-31-2009, 02:41 AM	#23
JonW Rocket Man Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: London Posts: 345 Favorites: PNA.AX, AFR.L, CTIC, XKEMQ Rep Power: 194 Reputation: 4127	I am so pissed off!! In a hotel room and just spent half an hour typing a post for this thread only to lose it when I posted as it jumped back to the hotel internet page - Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!! You will have to excuse me if i now do this in sections and if it is a lot shorter than I intended but I'm not willing to lose it all again!! Okay, I'm calmer now!! First thing I was gonna say was, Andy, can you post the two charts seperately please - they are too small to read clearly. Also what software are you using for the charts, what does it cost, and does it integrate to real time prices? Okay, gonna post this, see what happens and then try a longer one!! JonW __________________ "Everything happens for a reason. There is no such thing as coincidence. Listen lots and talk a little and you will eventually figure out the reasons for most things. This should tell you all you need to know about when to buy and when to sell. Always remember, though, that money is just money and true wealth lies in contentment."
	Rate this post \|

05-31-2009, 02:46 AM	#24
JonW Rocket Man Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: London Posts: 345 Favorites: PNA.AX, AFR.L, CTIC, XKEMQ Rep Power: 194 Reputation: 4127	CZA Recommended in IC as a BUY Friday's copy of Investors Chronicle recommends CZA as a Buy with a decent sized article that gives a strong write up and recommends a Buy at 89p. I'm sure plenty of us here have got in a lot lower than 89p (thanks to Vic in my case!) Here's the closing paragraph of the IC article:- "Edison Investment Research values Coal of Africa's first two projects Mooiplaats and Vele, at 300p per share. So, without even factoring in the value of the Makhado project implied by the Exxaro deal, the shares are undervalued. With value expected to be cemented by the signing of commercial deals with Eskom and ArcelorMittal, and with the imminent catalyst of first coal sales, the shares have plenty of upward drivers. Buy" Gonna post this in case I lose it again - more to follow (sorry I'm having to break it up like this!) JonW __________________ "Everything happens for a reason. There is no such thing as coincidence. Listen lots and talk a little and you will eventually figure out the reasons for most things. This should tell you all you need to know about when to buy and when to sell. Always remember, though, that money is just money and true wealth lies in contentment." Last edited by JonW; 05-31-2009 at 03:03 AM..
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05-31-2009, 07:01 AM	#27
AndyB Pro Charting Wannabe Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Manchester Posts: 386 Favorites: $SPX GGG.L ARSLF Rep Power: 209 Reputation: 4467	Hi jon, are you sure you cannot see that chart properly? I can view it even on my mobile. Just click on the image and it zooms it. The fundamentals of the stock are great, but the technicals say it has just completed 5 waves up, and now needs to complete an abc correction down. Preliminary price target for the correction is 73p The way to trade a stock like this- where you expect much more upside, is to let the correction play out- a few weeks- then add to the position when the next 5 waves starts and move a common stop up. Anyway, corrections can take all shapes and forms, it may move sideways, it may pull back. I'll be watching this stock and i'll keep you updated as to what i see! __________________ I am a junior investor/trader with less than a years experience, so weight my words accordingly. I'm using a stoploss at my break-even on SFEG. Production is delayed. Last edited by AndyB; 05-31-2009 at 12:27 PM..
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06-02-2009, 06:52 AM	#28
VicVan UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: London Posts: 666 Favorites: ANTO, GE, XL Rep Power: 207 Reputation: 4102	could break 100 today another near 10% rise after the dip __________________ Always do your own research and make up your own mind on any stock. Top investors follow themselves, sheep get slaughtered. Any tip, suggestion or comment posted by me is simply a suggestion / prompt for you to make up your own mind. No liability will be accepted. Its not a professional view, its a suggestion. Shares go up and down. Always spread your investments, always set your stops both up and down. If shorting or Futures investing, know what your doing. You cant beat the sharks, but you can swim on their back. Trade lucky.
	Rate this post \|

06-02-2009, 08:07 AM	#30
VicVan UberTrader Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: London Posts: 666 Favorites: ANTO, GE, XL Rep Power: 207 Reputation: 4102	Yep - until financials Their next financials will show huge cash flows in from the massive coal cutting operation which started December / January. Also with a reiteration of their massive and far bigger port and rail allocation / licences. Cashflow is king here as they not made and money as yet So yes, while its been brought from the mittel stake and mittel rumour, the next financials, should hold it, and push it towards 200 pence over a 12 month period. THen some if the economy recovers. But yeah, I would look as new to jump in now. Rumour on Mittel buying 100% has spiked it heavy. Fundamentals vs the chart __________________ Always do your own research and make up your own mind on any stock. Top investors follow themselves, sheep get slaughtered. Any tip, suggestion or comment posted by me is simply a suggestion / prompt for you to make up your own mind. No liability will be accepted. Its not a professional view, its a suggestion. Shares go up and down. Always spread your investments, always set your stops both up and down. If shorting or Futures investing, know what your doing. You cant beat the sharks, but you can swim on their back. Trade lucky.
	Rate this post \|

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