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[VicVan]

Afren - 2010 has a very high oi production potential. Trading way below its cash and net book value. Financial results show that they were paying operating costs from 1st June, but only started producing from 1st October. Hence revenue was from only x3 months - on a production ramp up

Now refinancing is an issue as they still will need more funding. Yet the oil find is huge. The find HAS put it at one of the top independent oil producers listed in London.

Yes we are talking Tullow Oil levels. As such, if you can lock away some cash for the long, and ride out the refinancing, this will be trading at multiples of what it is now.

News flow can still spike it

Hence Afren is one of my long tips, as well as short hop on hop off tips. It will eventually move to the LSX. Hence lock in and load it.

Guessing game:

6 month target = 90 - 130 pence (analyst target)
12 month = 130 pence
18 month = 200 pence
36 month = 500 pence

No real negatives.
Not a takeover target
High long gains possible

Check their website for excellent presentation and recent 6th April financials.
Check most recent reports from analysts as one is huge and very detailed


As always do your own research, shares move up and down. I am holding Afren stock.
Vic

[VicVan]

Share price being held down due to pending dilution from share placement at 32p. Fully expect them to annouce LSE listing procedures 1st - 5th May. This thing should move heavy up in a week, then stready long.

Unfortunately Americans still cant buy for 25 days due to issue of new UK stock.

Target and tip all on target with eyes all on 1st May - 5th May.

If it fails to pop I will sell a chuck to come on at later stock moving events like financials

[Cpt.Bluebottle]

ive liked afeen for a while now - liked it even more when i found out one of the head honchos is oil minister in the nigerian gvt.
given the history there, how likely do you think it is that this co will fail to make huge profits?

i hope youre right about afren vic. its been sitting still for too long and im getting bored.
but im learning patience... too much fooling around with positions seems to avoid as much as it hits.
ps... forthcoming/ imminent crash... any opinions??

[AndyB]

IMO Afren is consolidating its massive move from 15p to 44p. It looks to me like a huge bull pennant.

I bought in at 38p. I intend to sell part at 60p or so to leave me with "Free Shares" a-la Trant's Free Shares strategy for rookie traders (See technicals forum).

So I personally expect higher prices in the coming months. It could move down and re-test lows but I somehow doubt it.

If it does, so what??! Check the stats for Afren (VicVan is your man for Afren research). This is one mother of an oil company with serious assets and prospects.

[VicVan]

Bluebottle - I am a bit bored
Wait until May 1st General meeting and 5th May before cashing in major profits. Always hold a long position in it.

remember pricing is being kept down as we will have the 32p placing dilution - hopefully they will offset this with LSE listing and BOOM. major buyers can come in

whatever the case its grossly underpriced AND IT IS producing. So never fully sell everything as this one is going places. It match Tullow - IMHO

[VicVan]

Go back to this:

http://www.afren.com/uploads/Microso...ementFINAL.pdf

Read the final bit carefully. I brought 16.5 pence range then more ont he drop from the placing news, at 33p. I should still be buying more. If this thing goes to the LSE, it will go f***Ing lunar again.

Now check the last part:

"The Company will apply for admission of the Placing Shares to trading on the
AIM market of the London Stock Exchange (“Admission”). It is expected that
Admission will take place and that trading will commence on 5 May 2009.
The Placing is conditional upon, inter alia, Admission becoming effective and
upon the passing of the resolutions (without amendment) at the GM scheduled
for 1 May 2009. The Placing is also conditional on the placing agreement
made between the Company, Merrill Lynch, Jefferies and Morgan Stanley not
being terminated. It is anticipated that the settlement date will be 5 May 2009"

Worst case flat = best case it hits the FTSE 250, based on current size, tracker funds have to buy. Now this is from THEM. They WILL apply, and hell with the FSTE having a ton of dogs up there its only right they will get approved.

new placing dilution hits when it floats, capital is all there, LOADS AND LOADS (technical term) of oil, and pumping / generating cash flow now. Even if oil stays low, which it wont, its a winner. With oil spiking, this is a huge trade

Pity the Americans still cant buy into it....... a few should be holding from my old tip


DO NOT GET BORED JUST YET if the FTSE listing is delayed, it will come at somepoint.

Short term trade is a doer here also <40 pence buy, for news on 1st May / 5th May. Knowing Afren it will be delayed........

[VicVan]

BACK TRACK

Heck looking at the RNS 15th April is was all about them pulling the shares from the AIM to FTSE.

Now looking they CHANGED it to read they are applying for the new placing AKA dilution, to be AIM listed. So simple

Then no reference to FTSE listing - just that they plan to in future

f*** -------------- so no guarantee on a short burst or FTSE listing at all.

I had this back then:
"Read the RNS from 7:01 this morning:

"It is expected that the cancellation of trading in the Ordinary Shares on AIM will take place at the same time as the Ordinary Shares are admitted to the Official List and begin trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities"

That's about as difinitive as you can get in my books.
At the moment they would get into Small Cap, but if their SP holds at a min. of 35p after the admission of the placement on 5th May then their Market Cap will be £250M which based on the current Constituents would place them roughly in the bottom 50 of the FTSE 350 ie. the FTSE 250. "

But the post above from Afren just states application for the new shares on AIM. Hence dilution.

SO IT IS JUST A LONG PLAY - SEEMS NOT TO BE A SHORT TERM PLAY FROM THIS POINT ON

Obviously check it out. I am holding long but not adding in any more as thought it was concrete but its now open to interpretation.

V

[VicVan]

http://www.afren.com/uploads/Microso...n010509(1).pdf

1st May General Meeting

no talk of LSX - DULL in fact. Just backing up all the good points we knew already. No idea if it will attract new buyers. Expect 5th May dilution and some push and pull next week.

I just riding it out until we get through it. No LSX pop but my buy ins of 16.5 and 33 (since placing freak drop) seem fine

Play it long. Maybe get some positive news on the LSX listing, but seems they are holding back. They really can easily make the grade now.

NEXT WEEK - Dilution & Push & Pull, stock could go either way. Essentially financing in place now, 65,000 by 2010 is a F*** load of production. A similar company producing is worth multiples of this stock price

HOLD AND RIDE IT - NO DOWNSIDE VISABLE ON REPORT ONLY GOOD

ENRTY POINTS POSSIBLE IF DILUTION DROPS IT BACK SOME


Bit boring but hey its a keeper

[Andrew]

Thanks Vic, this and OPC are my two oil plays and I am planning on holding them for the long haul. Some news of an LSX listing would be exciting but I don't mind waiting and have freed up some capital to buy more if it drops. Hopefully will be riding this one to 800pence along side Tullow!

[rodgers]

Followed this tip from google finance got in about 22p and sold at about 40p, bought back in a few times and currently hold 2300 shares. I'm hoping to increase my holding over time as long term it looks very solid.

I'm also holding RIFT, HAWK and some RBS. As I say I'm a fairly new trader and don't have a massive amount of capital to invest at the moment. But hopefully by being careful and patience I can change that.

So thanks for this tip. This looks a very good and well run company with great growth potential.