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[TreeShaker]

Have not been posting on here much so please excuse.

Dont let the MMs shake you out on this one - this was what last week was all about.

There is a seller as we know - probably one of the institutions who took a placement at 2p. This is not unusual and it is standard practice for them to recoup investments and let the rest run to de-risk.

I have been topping up in these over the last few weeks and bought another 400k at around 12p. So yeah I do not want to see it drop back slightly. Do I care? Not really - here for the long haul.

The next few months will be transformational for the company and I for one am looking forward to it.

Read the recent RNS statements - plus see the article posted on here from Minemouth. This sums it up nicely. Check out Chris Catlow and Fortescue - see how they transformed whilst he was CFO. If he is going to have a big part to play in Sirius which it looks like he will with the Sirius purchase of Derby Salts with 100M shares, then this is all going to get very interesting.

All it will take now is a few good RNS's and this will be up and away.

So, no need to panic IMO. I am holding and looking forward to things unfolding with the various projects.

The market cap has gone from £2M to over £60M a week ago in only 5 months. This shows you the pace at which this company is progressing. It is very much right place and right time. Just need to be patient.

Have a read of the article below ................

GL All.

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[FONT=Times New Roman][/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman] [/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman]Sirius Pots Black To Clear Up On Potash In Australia[/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman]29 Oct 2009[/FONT] [FONT=Times New Roman]MineMouth takes a close look at the state of play for AIM-listed Sirius Exploration plc after its rapid year of growth…[/FONT] Forgive me, but you’ll have to excuse the title. Since my first article on Sirius (AIM: SXX) at the start of the year the pun of replacing serious with Sirius has been used to death, so I thought that I’d go for something a little different this time around. Appropriately, however, 2009 has indeed been the very year that things have got serious for Sirius, to which the share price has responded by rising from sub-1p levels in January to currently trade at 8.62p, off highs of 14.75p reached in September. The development of Sirius into a fully fledged company with a portfolio of world class potash and salt projects, coupled with the opportunity for the storage of both compressed air and carbon dioxide has been rapid. Understanding the business, its direction and potential, is now no longer a simple affair. To do the proposition justice, each section of the business needs to be understood and broken down. As such, analysing the market for potash as it stands today is as good a place as any to start. Outlook For Potash Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, the obvious current proxy for the potash market, reported its third quarter results on 22 October. Its earnings were $0.82/share, being $248.8 million, compared with $3.93/share, $1.2 billion, in the corresponding period of 2008. Potash Corp’s results are indicative of the situation for potash today, which has not been immune to the global economic downturn. Demand for fertilizer has been curtailed by falling income for farmers, a reduction in available credit, and the appetite for maintaining healthy stockpiles in light of falling prices, which has led to write downs. Furthermore, farmers have preferred to reduce or remove entirely the fertilizer used in soils, which, whilst not significantly affecting yields on a one year timeframe, does start to exponentially affect yields the longer the soil goes without being fertilized. Whilst shipping volumes are now steadily starting to rise, third-quarter volumes for Potash Corp were still over 50% lower than the same quarter in 2008, whilst year-to-date totals were nearly 70% lower than the first nine months of last year. Prices for soft commodities such as grain, for which potash is a key nutrient for enhanced growth, have fallen heavily throughout 2009, which has led to farmers preferring to buy fertilizer on an as-needed basis. Whilst the continued fall of the US dollar will have ramifications on all commodity prices, the outlook in terms of the global supply of wheat and grain remains healthy, negating the urgency for farmers to want healthy stockpiles of fertilizer. Belarusian Potash (BPC) is perhaps the most negative of all on the outlook for potash in the coming months, forecasting total deliveries of 30 million tons in 2009, down from 54 million tons in 2008. BPC believes that demand will rise in 2010, forecasting delivery of 45 million tons. In spite of the broadly neutral forecasts for potash over the coming months, the long-term argument for global fertilizer consumption remains as strong as ever. William Doyle, CEO of Potash Corp, puts the argument for long-term demand as succinctly as any, stating that: “According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, global population is forecast to grow from its current 6.8 billion to more than 9 billion by 2050, which will necessitate a 70% increase in world food production, including doubling of production in developing countries. Cereal crop production will need to grow from approximately 2 billion tonnes per year today to 3 billion tonnes in 2050, while meat production needs to rise from less than 270 million tonnes to 470 million tonnes annually over the same time period. An estimated 90% of the increase in food production will need to be achieved by increasing yields on existing arable land – a considerable challenge given that the average annual rate of yield declined from 2.3% in the 1960s to 1.3% this decade. It is estimated that more than 40% of the world’s current food production can be attributed to adequate fertilization, so the importance – and future value – of our products is clear.” For Sirius, at this stage of its development, the price at which potash trades is broadly irrelevant, for the company is not at a revenue generating stage. As Chairman, Richard Poulden, stated in his final results statement in August, “The company’s immediate priority is to delineate appropriate resources and reserves, undertake detailed feasibility studies and accelerate development to reach cash flow at the earliest opportunity.” As these milestones are reached so the price of potash will begin to become of increasing relevance, but for now the priority is to work toward partaking in its supply through the development of its two world class potash deposits. The Boree Salt Member, Queensland, Australia Just as there are many different ways to cross the road, so too are there many ways in which to satisfy a transaction. For Sirius, it has had little choice but to go the long way round to be in the position of owning c.640 square kilometres of the Boree Salt Member, which is located in the subsurface of the Adavale Basin, and which, following historical work, has been identified as the only known significant occurrence of bedded potash in Australia. The initial phase to achieving this position was through the acquisition of AusPotash Corp. To date, 63.5% of AusPotash has been acquired, satisfied through the issue of 73,100,000 new ordinary shares. The balance of 36.5% will be acquired through the issue of 46,210,012 new ordinary shares in Sirius, to bring the total consideration to 119,310,012 shares. AusPotash holds permits across 150 square kilometres of the Boree Salt Member. The final phase, meanwhile, was more straightforward, whereby Sirius has agreed to acquire 100% of Adavale Holdings through the issue of 150,000,0000 new ordinary shares. Adavale holds permits that cover close to 400 square kilometres of the Boree Salt Member. The development of the project will involve a significant amount of drilling, for which Sirius is in the process of applying for permitting with a view to commencing drilling in the first quarter of 2010. A preliminary assessment of the potential resource over an area of 25 sub-blocks of the tenement undertaken by Hill (1988) calculated that approximately 13 billion tonnes of halite (rock salt) are present for an assumed average bed thickness of 100 metres. No estimates on the potential potash resources of the bed have been calculated. The depth at which the halite bed occurs within the Boree Salt Member is understood to be between 2,000 and 2,500 metres below ground surface, with a potential thickness of up to 500 metres. The age of the rocks hosting the halite means that there is no outcropping, since the bed is covered by younger rocks, and was only discovered through onshore hydrocarbon drilling in the 1960s. Based on knowledge of potash deposits occurring within halite mineralization around the world it can be assumed that the potassium will be deposited within the upper evaporate section of the halite bed. This is seen with the Prairie Evaporate Formation of the Elk Point Basin in Saskatchewan, where sylvinite, the most important ore of potash is present in the upper bed, along with carnallite, a result of the sylvinite being transformed through the interaction with the salt brines. Initial qualitative analysis suggests the presence of potash beds in the Adavale Basin in the upper regions of the halite formation, with potassium minerals and sylvite being present. The exact resources present will only be determined from drilling, and, at present, there is no quantitative data to suggest that the prospect will prove to be economically mineable. Sirius is most likely to undertake a 3D seismic survey first, followed by drilling, which, should decent grades be delivered, will add support to the notion of the Boree Salt Member hosting economic mineralization. Should decent grades be achieved from drilling then the potential upside to Sirius is mind boggling. Derby Salt, Kimberly, Western Australia Continuing its rapid expansion, Sirius announced the acquisition of 100% of Derby Salt Pty Ltd on 23 October for a consideration of £13 million, satisfied through the issue of 100,000,000 new ordinary shares. One of the most interesting points of the acquisition is that the shares have been issued to The Catlow Family Trust, connected to Chris Catlow, current Investment and Business Development Director of Australian iron-ore major, Fortescue. Catlow’s exact involvement at present is unknown, but having him onside only adds to the attractions of Sirius. Derby Salt holds mineral leases in excess of 125,000 hectares (>1,250 sq km) in the Kimberly region of Western Australia that allows for the exploration and extraction of salt and potash, along with the creation of caverns for the storage of natural gas and possibly carbon dioxide. The Kimberly region overlies the Canning Basin, which, based on existing seismic data gathered over several decades is considered to contain vast evaporative salt accumulations. Following a detailed review of all available data, Derby Salt has identified and secured the ground that it believes to be most prospective for hosting economic potash deposits. Derby believes that the potash is situated within the Mallowa Salt unit of the Carribuddy Group within the Ordovician sediments in the Canning Basin. Exploring for potash within the Canning Basin is not new. BHP Billiton undertook an exploration programme in the 1980s, which identified extensive salt horizons at depths of between 900 and 1,800 metres, but didn’t proceed with further work. Today, Rio Tinto holds an extensive land package in the area, along with ASX potash junior, Reward Minerals, both focussed on the potential for potash deposits in the basin. In addition to the known halite hosted by the basin, it is also rich in coal, and ASX-listed Rey Resouces is developing a 1 billion tonne coal project immediately north of Derby Salt’s leases. Meanwhile, there are also advanced plans to pipe natural gas to shore close to Broome and Derby, 200 km’s north-west and 100-150 km’s north of the Derby Salt leases, respectively. The acquisition of Derby Salts ensures that Sirius has a dominant position within Australia for two projects that have the potential for hosting economic potash deposits. Qualitative indications are that the geology is ripe to host potash deposits, but until the quantitative data is available to back-up such indications both projects remain early-stage. Should Sirius bring either of its projects in Australia into production then it will have the market in that country to itself, for there is no domestic potash production in Australia at present. Dakota Salts, North Dakota, America The other major potash project within Sirius’ portfolio is Dakota Salts, which holds leases in excess of 5,000 acres covering a direct extension of the Williston Basin in North Dakota. Richard Poulden informed at the AGM that Sirius is in the process of expanding its land holding in Dakota, which, one would suspect, is the reason why the company has not been in a hurry to inform the world of the true value of its acreage. If I were a guessing man and had to put my neck out I would guess that the in-situ value of the potash in North Dakota runs into the billions of dollars. Poulden informed recently that Dakota Salts’ leases covering the Williston Basin host halite deposits of over 165 metres in thickness, with the gross potash thickness exceeding 10 metres with confirmed ore quality. The leases are 180 km south of some of the world’s largest potash concerns held by the likes of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, Acron Group of Russia, and BHP Billiton. North Dakota has been hot property in 2009 and it’s not potash that has been the key driver. Up until 18 months ago the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) believed that the Bakken, on the subsurface of the Williston Basin, hosted 151 million barrels of oil, before new data revealed that it hosted recoverable reserves of between 3.0 – 4.3 billion barrels of oil. The USGS has now described the Bakken as being “the largest continuous oil accumulation it has ever assessed.” There is the potential for a whole lot more oil should three forks-sanish prove to be a separate formation overlain by the Bakken. Whilst it is positive for North Dakota that it is host to the largest oil discovery in America since Prudhoe Bay, for Sirius what matters is how much potash its leases host, which is why it is focussed on expanding its land package, and delineating resources and reserves through undertaking detailed feasibility studies with a view to achieving cash flow at its earliest opportunity. As discussed before, the mined salt caverns have the potential for storing natural gas, or being used for compressed air energy storage (CAES), resulting in an additional revenue stream for Sirius. CO2 Energy Storage A further potential revenue stream for Sirius was announced on 13 October, with the company acquiring 100% of three companies: CO2 Energy Storage Pty Ltd, CO2 Energy Storage Ltd (Nevada), and Bicarb Sequestration Pty, satisfied through the issue of options over 2,550,000 shares, exercisable at 17.5p at any time during the next three years. The three acquired companies have commenced initiatives in two main areas, as follows: Storage or sequestration of CO2 – The Companies are currently working on a range of innovative approaches for both the storage of CO2 in salt caverns, as created by solution mining, and the sequestration of CO2 – whereby CO2 is effectively rendered inert – by directly injecting it into certain types of salt beds. This work is being undertaken with various Universities and research organisations in Australia and the USA. CAES revised to use CO2 – The Companies are also working on an innovative new technology which takes the concept of CAES (Compressed Air Energy Storage) and revises it to use compressed CO2 rather than compressed air. Part of the acquisition includes a patent filed by CO2 Energy Storage Pty Ltd naming Walter Doyle as the inventor for the concept of using sequestrated CO2 in a dual salt cavern model for the storage of electricity. This not only provides greater power storage than conventional CAES but would also qualify for carbon credits for the sequestrated CO2. Clearly the potential revenues that could be generated from storing CO2 could be immense, but no clues have been given by the Company as to how close the first revenues might be or indeed the potential CAPEX involved in launching such an operation. The first large-scale CO2 sequestration project commenced in 1996, Sleipner, operated by Norway’s StatoilHydro, which is located in the North Sea and where carbon dioxide is stripped from natural gas for disposal and storage in a saline aquifer. Other energy companies such as Vattenfall are actively engaged in deploying carbon capture technologies. The EU is backing carbon-capture technology in a big way, having offered around $1.5 billion from its economic-stimulus package and 300 million carbon credits from its emissions-trading system, worth just under $9 billion. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy announced in May that it was providing funding of $2.4 billion for carbon capture and storage projects. Looking To The Stars Today Sirius is valued at just over £50 million, but the point to recognise is that there is no “right” value for Sirius at this point in time, for there is no right value for hope. The bottom line is that if just one of the projects within the Company’s portfolio comes off then the value of the company will be a great deal more than £50 million. If none of the projects come off then we’ll be looking far closer at the value of the working interest in the Bobai Bishop Tungsten Mine in China, and the Macedonian projects. For Sirius the main objectives are as Richard Poulden set out in his recent statement to shareholders, namely to strengthen the management team, and bring the projects to fruition. As we get further news on the potash projects and the development of the CO2 storage and sequestration technology then according a value to Sirius will become easier. As it stands today though, Sirius could well become the brightest star on the market.