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A Lazy, Unfocused Summer Is Here: Global Week Ahead


This Global Week Ahead has a unifying theme — A Lazy, Unfocused Summer is here.

Yet that sentiment might be bullish stocks. No new news may be good news — in this upward trending market — driven by momentum, mostly.

The week’s equity trading slate should focus on share price recovery (or the lack of one) in the FANG large caps. The sudden tech sell-off wants to morph into a ‘buy the dip’ event. Futures on Monday were full of green arrows. The S&P 500 hit another all-time high at the open.

Valuations got rich on the big momentum stocks in the tech space in 2017. Then, Goldman Sachs put out the early June warning that shot down these stocks from their dizzy heights. This Summer Solstice week will usher in the new big moment. We will see what the major trading houses conspire to next.

The published slate of activity shows a potpourri of macro speakers and macro data prints. There is no concentrated spot to point out. I list them by region below.

In the USA, Fed speakers get unleased on risk markets. Their self-imposed silence ends from last week’s FOMC meeting.

(1) On Monday, NY Fed President Bill Dudley (always voting) kicks it off. He hosts a roundtable in Plattsburgh, New York. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans (voting 2017) follows that evening. He speaks on current conditions and monetary policy.

(2) On Tuesday, Vice Chair Stan Fischer (always voting) speaks from Amsterdam in the Netherlands. This will be followed by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (nonvoting 2017) and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan (voting 2017).

(3) On Friday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (alternate 2017) and St. Louis Fed President Jim Bullard (nonvoting 2017) get the final Fed words in.

In Latin America on Thursday, we get to watch: will Mexico's central bank hike again?

Consensus thinks there will be a 25 basis point rate hike, from 6.75% to 7.0%.

Mexican CPI inflation may hit +6.6% y/y; up from +6.3% y/y in a prior reading. This inflation rise should be used to justify the new rate hike. Note: Governor Carsten moves on to the Bank for International Settlements (the BIS) in July.

In Asia on Monday, Chinese property prices get updated. Look for any tardy evidence of needed home price cooling — gratis tighter macroprudential measures.

“Macroprudential” means the measures are targeted to just this particular housing sector problem, not the broad economy. It’s the latest fad in macroeconomic policy writing.

In Europe this week, Eurozone purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) and deferred comments by BoE Governor Mark Carney should be the big focus.

On Thursday and Friday, the European week ends with another EU Leaders Summit.

Reuters reported on a draft of the joint statement. It emphasized security and defense, anti-protectionist trade warnings, and support for continuing the fight against climate change. Those are all in open conflict with the latest from the USA’s new administration.

But more important, consider it an open message of European unity.

Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—

Broadcom AVGO: This major semi $96 billion market cap stock is also a long-term Zacks VGM score of B. Let’s watch how it performs in the rebound week ahead.

Regeneron REGN: This is the darling of the big biotechs.This $48 billion market cap growth stock priced at a hefty $480 a share lately, is a key component in the iShares Biotech ETF, and usually leads it up or down.

Vodafone Group VOD: This is a big $77 billion market cap European wireless telco stock. Let’s see if the stock price gets moving on better PMIs out of Europe this week.

Key Global/Macro Events—

On Monday, the Fed’s Dudley speaks in Plattsburgh, NY.

The BoE’s Carney speaks in London, UK.

On Tuesday, the Fed’s Fischer speaks in Amsterdam, the Fed’s Rosengren speaks at a Macroprudential Conference, and the Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Dallas, TX.

The unemployment rate in Russia is 5.3%.

The Fed’s Kaplan speaks in San Francisco, CA.

The BoJ releases its minutes.

On Wednesday, U.S. existing home sales should be 5.55 million, in line with the prior reading at 5.57 million.

On Thursday, there is a Brazilian central bank Q2 inflation report.

U.S initial claims should be low again. The last reading was 237K.

Mexico’s bi-weekly CPI inflation report comes out. 6.3% y/y is expected, after a 6.16% y/y in the prior reading.

Mexico central bank could move its policy rate up to 7.0% from 6.75%.

On Friday, the preliminary France manufacturing PMI comes out. Look for something near the prior 53.8.

In Germany, the preliminary manufacturing PMI should be near the prior 59.5.

The Eurozone composite manufacturing PMI should be near 56.8.

The U.S. preliminary manufacturing PMI should be near the prior 52.7.

U.S. new home sales comes out. Look for an advance to 610K from 569K in a prior reading.

The Fed’s Mester speaks in Cleveland and the St. Louis Fed’s Bullard speaks.

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