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Should Value Investors Consider NRG Energy (NRG) Stock?

Zacks

Value investing is easily one of the most popular ways to find great stocks in any market environment. After all, who wouldn’t want to find stocks that are either flying under the radar and are compelling buys, or offer up tantalizing discounts when compared to fair value?

One way to find these companies is by looking at several key metrics and financial ratios, many of which are crucial in the value stock selection process. Let’s put NRG Energy, Inc. NRG stock into this equation and find out if it is a good choice for value-oriented investors right now, or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks:

PE Ratio

A key metric that value investors always look at is the Price to Earnings Ratio, or PE for short. This shows us how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of earnings in a given stock, and is easily one of the most popular financial ratios in the world. The best use of the PE ratio is to compare the stock’s current PE ratio with: a) where this ratio has been in the past; b) how it compares to the average for the industry/sector; and c) how it compares to the market as a whole.

On this front, NRG Energy has a trailing twelve months PE ratio of 9.35, as you can see in the chart below:

This level is significantly favorable with the market at large, as the PE for the S&P 500 compares in at about 20.05. If we focus on the stock’s long-term PE trend, the current level puts NRG Energy’s current PE ratio way below its midpoint (which is 32.03) over the past five years.


Further, the stock’s PE also compares favorably with the Zacks classified Utility – Electric Power industry’s trailing twelve months PE ratio, which stands at 13.97. At the very least, this indicates that the stock is relatively undervalued right now, compared to its peers.

We should also point out that NRG Energy has a forward PE ratio (price relative to this year’s earnings) of 30.14, so it is fair to expect an increase in the company’s share price in the near future.

P/S Ratio

Another key metric to note is the Price/Sales ratio. This approach compares a given stock’s price to its total sales, where a lower reading is generally considered better. Some people like this metric more than other value-focused ones because it looks at sales, something that is far harder to manipulate with accounting tricks than earnings.

Right now, NRG Energy has a P/S ratio of about 0.40. This is significantly lower than the S&P 500 average, which comes in at 3.11 right now. Also, as we can see in the chart below, this is much below the highs for this stock in particular over the past few years.

If anything, this suggests some level of undervalued trading—at least compared to historical norms.

Broad Value Outlook

In aggregate, NRG Energy currently has a Zacks Value Style Score of ‘A’, putting it into the top 20% of all stocks we cover from this look. This makes NRG a solid choice for value investors, and some of its other key metrics make this pretty clear too.

For example, the P/CF ratio (another great indicator of value) comes in at 2.80, which is much better than the industry average of 7.22. Clearly, NRG is a solid choice on the value front from multiple angles.

What About the Stock Overall?

Though NRG Energy might be a good choice for value investors, there are plenty of other factors to consider before investing in this name. In particular, it is worth noting that the company has a Growth grade of ‘C’ and a Momentum score of ‘F’. This gives NRG a Zacks VGM score—or its overarching fundamental grade—of ‘B’. (You can read more about the Zacks Style Scores here >>)

Meanwhile, the company’s recent earnings estimates have been mixed at best. The current quarter has seen one estimate go higher in the past sixty days and one lower, while the full year estimate has seen one downward and no upward revisions in the same time period.

This has had a mixed impact on the consensus estimate, as the current quarter consensus estimate has plunged about 32.4% in the past two months, while the full year estimate has risen by about 11.1%. You can see the consensus estimate trend and recent price action for the stock in the chart below:

This mixed trend is why the stock has just a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and why we are looking for in-line performance from the company in the near term.

Bottom Line

NRG Energy is an inspired choice for value investors, as it is hard to beat its incredible lineup of statistics on this front. However, with a sluggish industry rank (bottom 37% out of more than 250 industries) and a Zacks Rank #3, it is hard to get too excited about this company overall. In fact, over the past one year, the Zacks Utility – Electric Power sector has clearly underperformed the broader market, as you can see below:

So, value investors might want to wait for estimates, analyst sentiment and broader factors to turn favorable in this name first, but once that happen, this stock could be a compelling pick.

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