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Ferrellgas (FGP) Q4 Earnings: Will the Stock Beat Estimates?


Ferrellgas Partners LP FGP is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2016 results on Sep 28, before the market opens. Last quarter, the partnership reported a negative earnings surprise of 59.57%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this quarter.

Why a Likely Positive Surprise?

Our proven model shows that Ferrellgas Partners is likely to beat estimates because it has the right combination of two key ingredients. A stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates and Ferrellgas Partners LP has the right mix.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate of a loss of 39 cents and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 45 cents, is pegged at +13.33%. This is a meaningful and leading indicator of a likely positive surprise.

Zacks Rank: Ferrellgas Partners currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. The combination of Ferrellgas Partners’ favorable Zacks Rank and positive ESP makes us reasonably confident of a positive surprise this season.

Conversely, we caution against Sell-rated stocks (#4 or #5) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

FERRELLGAS -LP Price and EPS Surprise

FERRELLGAS -LP Price and EPS Surprise | FERRELLGAS -LP Quote

Factors to Consider

Ferrellgas Partners continues to benefit from its inorganic initiatives. The Bridger Logistics operations are expected to contribute $100 million in adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2016. The partnership is also expected to benefit from its cost-cutting initiatives in the fiscal fourth quarter.

Moreover, Ferrellgas Partners’ presence across the U.S. puts it in a better position compared to other small-scale propane distributors. In addition, investments in technology render the partnership with a competitive advantage over its peers. These factors will collectively enable Ferrellgas Partners to improve service standards by reducing customer inconvenience.

Other Stocks to Consider

Ferrellgas Partners LP is not the only company looking up this earnings season. We see likely earnings beats coming from other companies as well:

Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. MEP, scheduled to report third-quarter 2016 results on Nov 3, has an Earnings ESP of +15.00% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

SCANA Corp. SCG has an Earnings ESP of +9.52% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to release third-quarter 2016 results on Nov 3.

Entergy Corporation ETR has an Earnings ESP of +17.44% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is slated to announce third-quarter 2016 earnings on Nov 7.

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  • Paul Hardy

    How on earth is it possible that no analyst say the potential of the Bridger catastrophe ? This is a perfect example of superficial analysis causing huge harm to the investing community. Low crude prices should have triggered someone to see the potential implications to FGP’s bottom line.