Following the release of first quarter 2012 results on April 26, 2012, only a handful of analysts covering Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) have revised their earnings estimates for 2012. We believe that the minimal estimate revisions reflect the lack of fresh news regarding new product launches/pipeline of Bristol-Myers during the quarter.
First Quarter 2012 Recap
Bristol-Myers’ first quarter 2012 earnings (excluding special items) of $0.64 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.61. First quarter earnings increased 10% from the year-ago period. Strong revenues aided earnings in the reported quarter.
Net sales in the reported quarter climbed 5% to $5.25 billion. Revenues were just shy of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.26 billion, mainly due to lower sales of Plavix and Avapro/Avalide. US net sales in the quarter climbed 6% to $3.5 billion. Sales in international markets increased 2% to $1.8 billion.
(Read our detailed earnings report at: Earnings Beat at Bristol-Myers ).
Agreement of Analysts
Following the release of the first quarter 2012 results, only 4 of the 14 analysts following the stock have revised their earnings estimates, 2 in either direction. We believe that most analysts left their estimates unchanged after the first quarter results, which was bereft of any major surprises/fresh news, since the company did not change its earlier guidance for 2012.
We also believe that the major challenge for Bristol-Myers in 2012 that will arise following the loss of US marketing exclusivity of blockbuster blood thinner Plavix on May 17 has already been accounted for by the analysts. Bristol-Myers has co-developed Plavix with Sanofi (SNY).
Fiscal 2013 estimates have been revised by 5 analysts over the last 7 days. While 3 analysts have trimmed estimates, 2 have moved in the opposite direction.
Magnitude – Consensus Estimate Trend
With majority of the analysts not changing estimates for 2012, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has gone down by just a cent to $1.95 per share over the last 7 days. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2013 has gone down by a cent to $1.94 per share over the last 7 days.
Neutral on Bristol-Myers
We currently have a Neutral recommendation on Bristol-Myers. The stock carries a Zacks #3 Rank (Hold rating) in the short run. Even though we are concerned about the high generic risk on many of Bristol-Myers’ leading franchises, we believe that the company’s diversified business model coupled with its strong financial position will help in tough situations.
Bristol-Myers is looking to combat the generic threat through partnering deals and acquisitions. Apart from acquisitions and partnership deals, Bristol-Myers is looking to introduce new products to augment its product portfolio to combat generic threat. Bristol-Myers has met with a fair amount of success towards achieving this objective. Many new products were launched/ approved in 2011.
A key action date is coming up at Bristol-Myers in June when the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is scheduled to decide on blood thinner Eliquis, co-developed with Pfizer (PFE), for preventing stroke in patients suffering from atrial fibrillation. Positive news from the FDA will help boost the stock.
About Earnings Estimate Scorecard
As a PhD from MIT, Len Zacks proved over 30 years ago that earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices. He turned this ground breaking discovery into two of the most celebrating stock rating systems in use today. The Zacks Rank for stock trading in a 1 to 3 month time horizon and the Zacks Recommendation for long-term investing (6+ months). These “Earnings Estimate Scorecard” articles help analyze the important aspects of estimate revisions for each stock after their quarterly earnings announcements. Learn more about earnings estimates and our proven stock ratings at http://www.zacks.com/education/
BRISTOL-MYERS (BMY): Free Stock Analysis Report
PFIZER INC (PFE): Free Stock Analysis Report
SANOFI-AVENTIS (SNY): Free Stock Analysis Report
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